Nugent-Hopkins for Duchene?

 #Oilers

My sources tell me that Matt Duchene paid a visit to Daryl Katz' house in Edmonton today.    My gut tells me it's a swap with the Oilers having to send Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and a 2019 draft pick due to Nuge's contract being longer.  Here is the tale of the tape.  Green highlighted cells indicate advantage over the other.

Relatively even players, except Duchene is nearly 50% better than Nuge on faceoffs and Duchene was on a terrible team last season (hence the -34 +/-), but overall, he appears to be a better value than Nuge is right now and you're not locked into Nuge's salary.  It also gives you time to find and wait for Puljujarvi to take McDavid's right wing so you can slot Draisaitl back to 2C and then look at trading Duchene.

Expansion Draft Mania

 #Oilers

We haven't had an expansion draft in a long time.  The Las Vegas Golden Knights can pick one player from each of the 30 teams.  Teams are allowed to protect either 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goalie, or 8 players and 1 goalie.  All 1st and 2nd year pros under contract and unsigned draftees are protected so players like McDavid, Nurse, Benning, Caggiula, Puljujarvi, Slepyshev are already protected and don't count toward the protection count.  This has left teams having to expose some vets for good or bad.  I'm not going to mention the mostly AHL players as I don't think Vegas will look at them. I'm not showing the current UFAs like Pitlick until the Oilers sign them, like they did with Pakarainen.

For the Oilers, they will protect 7-3-1:

Leon Draisaitl
Milan Lucic (no movement clause)
Patrick Maroon
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Jordan Eberle
Zack Kassian
Mark Letestu

Andrej Sekera (no movement clause)
Adam Larsson
Oscar Klefbom

Cam Talbot

Which exposes:

Benoit Pouliot - while this is who we want Vegas to take, at $4m, they won't

Jujhar Khaira - very real possibility Vegas snags him, as JJ can score, hit, take faceoffs, and I see him on the Oilers roster, essentially replacing Matt Hendricks

Iiro Pakarainen - being injured for most of the year, I doubt Vegas takes a gamble (see what I did there?)

Griffin Reinhart - surely he gets taken, as decent defensemen are rarer than bottom forwards, and Griff showed he can play

Mark Fayne - at over $3m in the AHL, not a chance Vegas take him

Laurent Brossoit - Vegas won't take him--not enough games under his belt, and I'm wondering if this was a reason he didn't play a lot, and Chiarelli actually thinks there's a real good goalie here.

This all essentially leaves the Oilers roster at:

Forwards: ~$43 million in cap with Leon taking $7m:

Patrick Maroon - Connor McDavid - Jesse Puljujarvi

Milan Lucic - Leon Draisaitl - Jordan Eberle

Drake Caggiula - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Anton Slepyshev

Benoit Pouliot - Mark Letestu - Zack Kassian

Jujhar Khaira - Iiro Pakarinen

Now the question marks are on Jesse Puljujarvi, if he makes the team, does he slot in with McDavid, which is the long-term plan obviously?  Does that then push Eberle out to make $6m in cap space room?  It's possible that even if Pool Party doesn't make the team this year, Chiarelli could sign Pitlick after the expansion draft and slot him in, but his injury is a big concern.  He could also look for a UFA like Justin Williams at a lower cost, still trade Ebs and move Anton, Zack, and Iiro up a line, although I would say, not ideal.  If Khaira gets snagged, then it's likely Pitlick gets signed.

Defense:  ~$20 million in cap:

Oscar Klefbom - Adam Larsson

Andrej Sekera (IR) - Kris Russell (UFA)

Darnell Nurse - Matt Benning

Eric Gryba (UFA)

Sekera will be out until December if all goes well with his torn ACL.  Kris Russell talks have begun but we're hearing over $4m over several years, but the Oilers don't have the cap room unless they move someone out.

The Oilers still need to find a true 2nd pair right handed puck mover at around $3m, and with Sekera injured, although it doesn't count toward the cap, Chiarelli can find a replacement rental at less than $5.5m, but what happens when Sekera returns?  My guess is the Oilers will sign Russell to a 2 year at $4m/yr then trade him when Sekera returns, but that's only if they find a true 2RHD, otherwise, they go over the cap, unless they trade Eberle.  Make sense?  Didn't think so.

Goalies:  ~$5 million in cap

Cam Talbot

Laurent Brossoit

And others like Mark Fayne bring the cap hit just under $73m, which gives the Oilers no real cap room as it stands.

These Benoit Pouliot (2 years left at $4m) and Mark Fayne (1 year left at $3.5m) contracts have really come to bite the Oilers in cap space. That's $7.5 million right there.  If somehow Chiarelli can buy out one of them, then maybe Eberle will stay on another year, but when McDavid's entry-level contract ends after next season, then you need a whole pile of cash to pay for his next big-ass contract.  And if you can't trade Pouliot at that time, you'll have to buy him out AND trade Eberle.

Then after that, you're still paying Nuge $6m to play 3rd line centre.  That's not economical either.

Essentially, MacTavish's tenure has left Chiarelli with a lot of work to do in the next while.  And I have full confidence Chiarelli will make it happen.

Let the mania begin.

Hendricks the Hero

As you all know, during Oilers home games, two Canadian military personnel are honoured and "Hendricks' Heroes" is displayed on the screen which shows the player giving jerseys to those who serve.  It is always a proud moment for our city and even though the player is from the U.S., he still felt it necessary to do such a thing.

So if there is one player I will miss more than any that have departed the Oilers over the past 11 years besides Smytty (although he did return) it's Matt Hendricks.

When then-GM Craig MacTavish traded goalie Devan Dubnyk to Nashville for Matt Hendricks I thought, "Who is this guy?  I've never heard of him."

Then he started playing and he brought that toughness the team so desperately needed.  And by toughness, I mean sacrifice.  Never afraid to drop the gloves.



Never afraid to block a shot.  Never afraid to check a guy into his bench.  He was the sort of player you could not help but love.  And don't forget "The Paralyzer" shootout deke move he patented.  Or yes, the puck to the jewels he took even at a time when the team had no hope of making the playoffs.



Edmonton Journal stalwart Oilers guy Jim Matheson wrote a nice departing article about Hendo here.  Jim is correct when he says Hendricks will likely become a coach.  He's got that respect, locker room presence, and knowledge of the details of the game that will benefit the players that play for him.

The Oilers video at the beginning of the home game shows Hendricks holding his child at home and then training with a quick clip of him screaming at the camera.  It gives me chills.  It always will.  It shows he knows what it means to be a father and to sacrifice.

Courtesy Edmonton Oilers

Courtesy Edmonton Oilers

During the playoff run, when I saw video clips of Hendo in the Oilers locker, fully dressed in uniform and gear, going by each player and pumping them up, I wondered that this was a bit odd for a benched player to be doing this.  

But the iced players wanted him there.  It just goes to show what Mark Messier said a year ago is so very true.

"It's very simple. No individual can win a championship on his own. It's just that simple. You need a lot of support, you need a lot of people thinking the same way, all in alignment. You need the heart and the dedication and the character to make it happen.

"We realized that. When you win, the stage is big enough for everybody. You've got to make everybody feel that their contributions are just as important as the next guy's no matter whether it's 30 minutes a game or two minutes a game. Everybody's got to feel that they're important.

"If they don't bring their best every game, you have zero chance of winning there. We were able to convince everybody that came here that they were important and we needed them."

Mark Messier
at the Farewell to Rexall Place Ceremony

As he's a UFA on July 1 and unlikely he'll be resigned with the Oilers, we can only wish Matt Hendricks well on signing with another team.

He gave it all every game and when he arrived, he brought character to a team that didn't have any, And as fans, we should be grateful and thank him for his sacrifice and his time as an Oiler.

For me, he'll always be Hendricks the Hero.

Oilers lost but they won hearts back

Young fans pressed up on the glass prior to the Oilers first playoff game.
Photo courtesy of myself.

Another game 7.  Another disappointing loss.  For those fans who weren't around in 2006, I say "another", because we had the same feeling.  We also had hope for the next season. And the next. And the next.

Now THAT was disappointing.  I'm sure you'll take a game 7 disappointing playoff loss over ten years of not even getting to have that feeling, 97 times out of 97.

While there have been thousands of us who have stuck with the team through thick and thin, through several complete roster, coaching, and management changes, with the hope and belief of a better tomorrow, and unconditional love, this season end and playoff run has:

1.  Instilled excitement and awe from new young fans (see photo).  Yes, Connor McDavid most certainly has a lot to do with that, but you must include Cam Talbot, Leon Draisaitl, Patrick Maroon, Milan Lucic, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, and Darnel Nurse, among others into that mix now. Several years ago, many kids couldn't really name any of Oilers, let alone bother to watch them, because their parents didn't either.  For you die hard parents who did watch them with your kids, you can't tell me your son(s) and/or daughter(s) didn't really have a favourite player--maybe Hall or Nuge, but not to the level of McDavidom.  When parents are excited, kids are excited, and then the parents are even more excited that their kids are excited.  It's a happy feedback loop.  It's contagious.  The kids are future season ticket holders.

2.  Woke up the crowd at the arena.  Holy wow was it quiet during the season.  It was being called Rogers Library.  Maybe we were just simply in tune with every nuance of the game and didn't like the distractions of cheering loudly.  That first playoff game was magical.  Every hit, every pass, every shot, blockshot, save had the crowd awing and ooing to noise levels comparable to some of the goals during the decade of darkness (DoD).  So loud.  So awesome.

3.  Brought people together.  I pretty much watch every game.  Even during the DoD, die hard friends or my dad and I would get together to watch.  But now everyone wants to watch.  Friends and family who didn't watch before love watching now.

4.  Made us hate the refs.  I won't go into detail, but man, something has to be done. Hello, team owners!

A few more points about feelings... aw.....

I have this feeling that as we analyzed players and games over the last ten years, that we were able to somehow, but not really, bring this team to a higher ability winning level so that new and returning fans can enjoy this "thing" called the Oilers for years to come.  You're welcome?

Maybe it was the false sense of pride we had during that time when Lowe and Co. made the team shittier and shittier, so that the hockey gods looked down upon how freaking dedicated we were, and granted us the Golden Ticket and the gift of Connor McDavid.  But I don't believe that anymore.  There has to be the components that bind the team together.  Mark Messier used to say that every single person on the team is important.  These Oilers have finally learned that again.

Throughout all of this, for all of us, and the players and staff, the most important thing is that the players:

5.  Won our hearts.

And for that, we can be grateful, and ever hopeful.

Always believe.

Never give up.

Let's GO Oilers!

Game 4 vs Ducks: "Finding ways to lose"

Anaheim Ducks forward Corey Perry interferes with Edmonton Oilers goalie Cam Talbot as puck shot into Oilers' net.
Image courtesy of Sportsnet.

In every series, there always seems to be that one guy no one expects to step up.  For the Oilers it was Zackassian in the 1st round.  In this one, it's Jakob Silfverberg.  Before the puck dropped, my wife and I commented on how this guy was dangerous.  I think we'll stop saying these things from now on, but I'd like to take that extra and unnecessary "f" in his name, add some letters to it and give it back to him, if you know what I mean.  I'm not saying I don't like the guy, but damn.

Quick recap...

Oilers deserved to win game 1.  They defensively shutdown the Ducks and potted 3.

Oilers didn't deserve to win game 2.  Anaheim outplayed them, but the puck luck was with the Oil.

Oilers didn't deserve to win game 3.  They were outplayed in periods 1 and 3.  Goaltending wasn't up to snuff, but neither was the Oilers defensive game.

But in game 4, it's a different story.  Did the Oilers deserve to win the game?  First period was Oilers Oilers Oilers, but then they took some dumb penalties, and got into serious trouble in the 2nd period.

Then the Ducks had their "7th man":

Goaltender interference, challenged by McLellan, denied, but goal counted.

Offside, no coaches challenge left for McLellan, but goal.

Even the smart learned CBC/Sportsnet panel of MacLean, Kyprios, Hrudey, and Friedman all agreed on these bad calls.  When THEY agree, then I'll tell ya, the NHL had better do something about the crappola shit-reffing.  Every fan in every series is commenting on how bad the refs are this year in not enforcing the rules, but particularly the absolute inconsistency.

Luckily the Oilers poured it on late in the 3rd and The Drake potted one in front to tie it up to go to overtime. Relief.

Then icing by the Ducks was marked by the 1st linesman with his hand up, but it was waived by the 2nd linesman, seemingly thinking Klefbom could get to the puck in time, which he absolutely could not, and then the ref got in the way in the corner, a soft battle on the boards, and next thing you know, the puck is in the Oilers net. More on that in a sec.

ALL. THAT. SAID.

No excuse for Jordan Eberle to not only make one, but two soft plays. I'd say he looks like a rookie out there, but he was better as a rookie so it's an insult to his former self.  Already in his bad books, Coach McLellan promptly relegated Ebs to the 4th line and then benched him for many shifts with Anton Slepyshev moving up the lineup.  He's way faster and harder than Ebs and actually shoots well.

Then Nuge actually gets the puck in front of his net for a split second, but because he doesn't swiftly shoot it out like the instincts should make you do, Getzlaf treats Nuge's stick like a paper doll and pots one past Talbot.

In OT, icing or not, a soft play on the boards by the Oilers young D, and Getzlaf has no trouble retrieving the puck to dish it to none other than Jakob Silfverberg left alone in front for a zapper of a shot.

And you know, if that was Eberle on the other end, he'd have caught the puck in his catcher's mit-of-a-stick, held it there for 8 seconds, and lobbed a soft wrister right at Gibson.

Atrocious.

Soft plays against a hard team will kill you.

And that, my friends, is how the Oilers are finding ways to lose.

"Finding ways to win" and analyzing Anaheim line matchups

Oilers forward Zack Kassian fights Ducks Ryan Kesler in Game 1 of Round 2
Image courtesy of Edmonton Journal

"Finding ways to win"  

I've always had difficulty in understanding what that common canned cliche spouted by players in their interviews actually means.  I can't stand cliches.  What is "the way" exactly?

In looking at Game 1 vs. the Ducks, "ways to win" consisted of generally taking advantage of Gibson's weaker goaltending, but even with McDavid not really producing, he still has an incredible effect on the game.

1. McDavid drawing penalties
This put the Oilers on the PP more than once to take advantage of Ducks weak PK.  Many say he's been playing hurt or is suffering from the flu going around the team, but McDavid is still able to skate faster than anyone and draw hooks, and that's mighty valuable.

That counted for 2 goals from Letestu on the left side from a rebound off Gibson.

2. Behind the net goals
On several occasions, Nurse, Sekera and Larsson all saw lanes to the net.  Sekera went behind on left side and tried to slip one off Gibson and it almost went in with Gibson sprawling.  Larsson then tried the same thing on the right side and the puck deflected off of a Ducks d-man and went in, making it the game winning goal.  I believe the Oilers goalie coach Dustin Schwartz saw this weakness in Gibson and instructed the Oilers d-men to "go for it" and they then actually practised this drill.

That counted for 1 goal and almost 2.

3.  Poor line changes
The Oilers used to be bad on this in the season. The OT goal against the Sharks in game 5, they took advantage of their own line change where McDavid went off and Desharnais skated on, snuck inside down the middle to accept a perfect needle pass from Draisiatl and score. Where in Game 1 vs. the Ducks, the Ducks were caught on a bad line change while the Oilers were in the o-zone and Larsson saw an opportunity to pull a Desharnais, slipped into the middle, and again, got a perfect pass from Drai to zing a wrister for a goal.

4.  Shadowing McDavid
This strategy can backfire. It stymies Getzlaf on performing more offense and in taking offensive draws where he has to match with McDavid in draws in the d-zone, and it's proven to free Draisaitl to do this magic, which he most certainly has.  It's a one or the other situation, but the Ducks can't seem to stop both.

Analyzing Anaheim line matchups...
Courtesy of hockeyviz.com, the Corsi weighting per line/pair is displayed against the competition.
Below, the top 6x6 are the d-pair matchups and the rest are the forwards.

Main match-ups:

Anaheim d-pairs against Oilers d-pairs:

Fowler/Montour pair got beat by Oilers 1st pair (Klefbom/Larsson)

Lindholm/Manson pair got beat by Oilers 2nd pair (Sekera/Russell)

Theodore/Bieksa pair got beat by Oilers 3rd pair (Nurse/Benning)

Anaheim d-pairs against Oilers forward lines:

Fowler/Montour pair got beat by most Oilers lines

Lindholm/Manson pair beat Oilers 1st and 3rd lines

Theodore/Bieksa pair got beat by most Oilers lines

Anaheim forward lines against Oilers d-pairs:

Ducks Getzlaf 1st line got beat by Oilers 2nd pair (Sekera/Russell)

Ducks Kesler 2nd line beat most Oilers d-pairs

Ducks Thompson 3rd line beat Oilers 1st pair (Klefbom/Larsson)

Ducks Vermette 4th line pretty even with Oilers Desharnais 4th line.

Anaheim forward lines against Oilers forward lines:

Ducks Getzlaf 1st line got beat by Oilers Nuge 2nd line.

Ducks Kesler 2nd line pretty even with Oilers McDavid 1st line.

Ducks Thompson 3rd line beat Oilers Letestu 3rd line.

Ducks Vermette 4th line got beat by Oilers 3rd pair (Nurse/Benning)

SUMMARY:

Oilers beat Ducks in 8 main matchups

Ducks beat Oilers in 4 main matchups

No clear adv. in 2 main matchups.

While it seems Anaheim had more puck possession in the Oilers zone, they didn't have as many grade "A" chances.  These games are decided by slight edges, where the top six of each team usually matches up well against each other, the advantage goes to the teams with an edge on power plays and defensive or bottom six heroes.

Oilers played like how Rocky fights

Game 1:

I attended the first Oilers playoff game in 11 years and being there at the new barn was one heck of a treat to myself. It felt like a reward after oh so many years of pain.  Not only that but it was my actual first NHL playoff game ever.  Shocked aren't you?  I didn't go to the games in 2006.  Watched them all on TV.  So let's say I've been saving up!

I saw Terry Evans, Bill Cowan, and Bryn Griffiths from K97 broadcasting from Match.  I always enjoy hearing them in the morning.  I also enjoy the Grand Villa Casino centre bar.  Reminds me of NYNY in Vegas.  After time with friends there, I headed over to watch the intro.

The crowd was electric.  It's nothing I've ever experienced.  I'm also happy the team plays metal instead of wussy music. "Seek and Destroy" from Metallica is perfect.  Gets me pumped.

Game start... the Oilers came out strong and with every hit Lucic made or touched the puck the crowd went nuts "LUUUUUUCH!".  Then zoom, Oilers popped two into the net.  It was amazing.

But then the overconfidence perhaps set in and in the 2nd and 3rd periods they were flat, couldn't hold on, and the Sharks circled.  I was amazed it went into overtime.  When the OT goal was scored by the Sharks though, all those disappointment feelings returned.  Everyone wanted to get out of there as fast as possible.

While exiting I zipped through the stages of grief until I landed on a glimmer of hope.  I told fans around me walking back to the parkade, "Always believe and never give up. Always believe and never give up."

I was right.

Game 2:

Game two I watched from a downtown bar with my wife.  While parts of the game made me nervous, the Oilers were much more composed and cool, except for Zack Kassian.  Holy, wow.  Bet the Sharks weren't expecting this freighter of a player to run ramshackle all over them.  Six big hits.  One shorthanded game-winning goal.  And of course, Connor had to get a shorty too. Man he releases fast. Ebs could learn a thing or to. But that goal was pure icing--but on the cake kind.

Hope returned.

Game 3:

This one my wife and I went to the arena for the first ever playoff watch party at the new barn.  While the upper seats were blocked off, the lower bowl was mostly filled.  About 11,000 fans showed up.  There were no bad views of the giant screen and we were in the last row of the lower bowl in the corner.  "Let's Go Oilers!" chants were rampant and the wave was nearly continuous.



The 1st period saw the Sharks hammer the Oilers with a bazillion hits and doubling the shots.  I was shocked the Sharks hadn't scored.  But then I started to notice the Sharks weren't really getting good chances which meant they were getting tired from all the hitting.

It was at that moment I knew the Oilers would win.

Just like Rocky Balboa would do.  Except weren't not in Philadelphia.  San Jose, man.  I've been there, very nice place by the way.  Geez, I have family there too.  Why didn't I think of flying down and staying with them and go to the game.  Oh, work.

Anyway, Oilers are Rocky.  2nd operiod the Oilers went toe-to-toe.  Sharks looked gassed.  Oilers needed to pounce but nothing was happening. It's what Rocky does.  He let's his opponent beat the crap out of him, which is out of the opponent's normal expectation. But he doesn't go down, and so his opponent is confused and tired mentally.  Then Rocky changes it up and starts using his left, which surprises the opponent.



"I know what I'm doing!"

And that's exactly what Todd McLellan did.

With no scoring, and the McDavid line getting clamped, McLellan made the brilliant move of moving Draisaitl to 3rd line centre and Kassian to 3rd line right wing, Slepyshev on McDavid's right side, and the former 3rd line to 4th line, to give:

Maroon-McDavid-Slepyshev
Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
Caggiula-Draisaitl-Kassian
Pouliot-Desharnais-Letestu

Lines 1, 2, and 4 were then holding their own defensively and matching up better against San Jose's lines.  But it was the revamped 3rd line that had an advantage.



Draisaitl easily forechecked and put pressure on the Sharks, which caused them to make a mistake near the net, flipping the puck which hit Kassian, who took it on his backhand in front and slid it through Martin Jones five-hole.



Rogers Place erupted.  If there were no Oilers fans in San Jose, Rogers Place was definitely louder than the SAP Centre.

What would have been cool is if the camera in San Jose showed Oilers fans chanting at us in Edmonton and we could have gone back and forth or something.  Wouldn't THAT be neat?

Ah, we could feel them there anyway.

Then the crowed chanted "KAS-SI-AN! MVP!"  He's got those crazy intimidating eyes.

But props to the defense and Cam Talbot.  So many nerves were thwarted by their relentlessness.

Negative:
I still worry about the Nurse-Benning pairing.  I'd limit those minutes in the defensive zone.

Positive:
My work is allowing us to wear Oilers gear on game days.  The manager is wearing a jersey, as am I.


This is fun!

Oilers and McDavid exceed season expectations

PAST GAMES since start prediction:
+2 Red Wings -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Islanders -> BAD WRONG (0)
0 Penguins -> GOOD WRONG (+1)
0 Canadiens -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Stars -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Bruins -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
+2 Canucks -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Kings -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
0 Ducks -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Avalanche -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Avalanche -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Kings -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
0 Sharks -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
+1 Ducks -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
+1 Kings -> BAD WRONG (0)
0 Sharks -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
+2 Canucks -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Canucks -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
==========
103 points total, (+5) ahead of prediction

Connor McDavid
100 points in 82 games (1.22 ppg)
+3 ahead of prediction

Oilers and McDavid likely to exceed predictions

PAST GAMES:
+2 Red Wings -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Islanders -> BAD WRONG (0)
0 Penguins -> GOOD WRONG (+1)
0 Canadiens -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Stars -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Bruins -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
+2 Canucks -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Kings -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
0 Ducks -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Avalanche -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Avalanche -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Kings -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
0 Sharks -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
+1 Ducks -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
+1 Kings -> BAD WRONG (0)
==========
+17 TOTAL -> GOOD CORRECT (+21)

97 points current after 79 games. 
0 points to meet prediction of 97 points
3 games remain.  

FUTURE GAMES (old prediction):
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
4 points for 101 points total, (+4) ahead of prediction

Connor McDavid?
95 points in 79 games = 1.20 ppg
On track for 99 points total.  2 above prediction of 97 points.

97 points tracker

PAST GAMES:
+2 Red Wings -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Islanders -> BAD WRONG (0)
0 Penguins -> GOOD WRONG (+1)
0 Canadiens -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Stars -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Bruins -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
+2 Canucks -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Kings -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
0 Ducks -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Avalanche -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Avalanche -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Kings -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
==========
+15 TOTAL -> GOOD CORRECT (+16)

93 points current after 76 games. 
4 points to meet prediction of 97 points
6 games remain.  0.67 points per game average to meet prediction.

FUTURE GAMES (old prediction):
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
6 points for 99 points total, (+2) ahead of prediction

Connor McDavid?
89 points in 76 games = 1.17 ppg
On track for 96 points total.  1 behind prediction of 97 points.

Oilers and McDavid zero-in on prediction of 97 points on the season

PAST GAMES:
+2 Red Wings -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Islanders -> BAD WRONG (0)
0 Penguins -> GOOD WRONG (+1)
0 Canadiens -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Stars -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Bruins -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
+2 Canucks -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Kings -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
0 Ducks -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Avalanche -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
==========
+12 TOTAL -> GOOD WRONG (+13)

89 points current after 74 games. 
8 points to meet prediction of 97 points
8 games remain. 1 point per game average to meet prediction.

FUTURE GAMES (prediction):
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
9 points (+1) ahead of prediction

Connor McDavid?
5 points in last two games!87 points in 74 games = 1.18 ppg
On track for 96.4 points total.  0.6 behind prediction of 97 points.

Oilers on track to reach my prediction of 97 points

Prediction to Reality

I've predicted that the Oilers and McDavid will end up with the same number of points as McDavid's number.

How are they doing?

PAST GAMES:
+2 Red Wings -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)+2 Islanders -> BAD WRONG (0)0 Penguins -> GOOD WRONG (+1)0 Canadiens -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Stars -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)

+1 Bruins -> GOOD WRONG (+2)

+2 Canucks -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Kings -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
==========

+10 TOTAL -> GOOD WRONG (+11)

87 points current after 72 games. 
10 points to meet prediction of 97 points
10 games remain. 1 point per game average to meet prediction.

FUTURE GAMES (prediction):
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
11 points (+1) ahead of prediction

Connor McDavid?
82 points in 72 games = 1.14 ppg
On track for 93 points total.  
He'll need four 3 point games to catch up.  He could very well do it against the Avalanche.

This is all not to say that I wouldn't be excited if the Oilers got more than 97 points, which I think is entirely possible, including catching up to the Sharks and taking 1st in the Pacific.

Panic time? Oilers still on track to make playoffs

At the 18 games remaining marking, below is my points prediction compared with reality.

I said that Oilers would beat teams below them in points, split points from teams that are close to them, and lose to teams that are above them in order to get 97 points.  However, I made a mistake in where they were at in points at that time (74 not 76), which means, I have to adjust my prediction and remove 2 points, so I'll take it from the Canadiens loss, who were up on them in the standings at the time of the game.

ORIGINAL PREDICTION:
+2 Red Wings
+2 Islanders
0 Penguins
0 Canadiens (previously predicted a win with +2 points)
+2 Stars
+1 Bruins
+2 Canucks
+1 Kings
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
9-4-5 record
21 points
76 points current
97 points total

After four games, the Oilers are one point back of what I should have predicted.  

PAST:
+2 Red Wings -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Islanders -> BAD WRONG (0)
0 Penguins -> GOOD WRONG (+1)
0 Canadiens -> BAD CORRECT (0)
==========
1-2-1 record
3 points gain, 3 points loss
79 points
18 points to meet prediction

FUTURE:
+2 Stars
+1 Bruins
+2 Canucks
+1 Kings
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
17 points
-1 from prediction

I now need to adjust one game prediction.  They'll beat the Bruins in regulation.

It's a tall order.  They'll need at least 90 to make the playoffs.  The worst spot to end up is in the 2nd Wild Card position to be playing either Hawks or Wild in the first round, who will either be #1 in the Western Conference.  I'm hoping for the Ducks, which means the Flames 9 game winning streak needs to end, and end now!

Oilers trade-dead

POHOGM Peter Chiarelli didn't go fishing in the big lake of players and goalies to prop-up the line-up for a playoff run.  His confidence in the current crew to steer his ship is quite the leap for many of us who, from a Cup-contender perspective, do not see a complete team.

The goal at the outset of the season was obviously to improve and hopefully squeak into a wild card spot, but they exceeded that and levelled out to be consistently in the #2 or #3 spot in the Pacific, jousting with the Ducks.

The team isn't without its issues although not as far glaring as in previous years.

Bright spots:

1. The top line, although I've questioned Draisaitl's conditioning as of late.

2. Cam Talbot -- Many have suggested he's been the real MVP of the year, not McDavid.

3. Mark Letestu -- who excels when there is one less skater on the ice either way.  I wonder if growing up in a remote town like Elk Point, Alberta ingrained the idea that more open space is preferable and easier to work with.  Having him centre the 4th line is a good home as he props-up Hendo and Kass or Pak quite well.

Weak points:

1. Middle six forwards -- Their lack of production, faceoff wankery, and ho-humbness hasn't been a difference-maker.  They're average at best.  This is an area where Chiarelli at least addressed one spot by trading for David Desharnais.  I was always leery of NCAA-talent Drake Caggiula slotting right into the 3C spot in his rookie year.  He's got skills, but I think a stint in the AHL would do wonders for his confidence.  The Oilers are near last in faceoff percentage.  Tough to win on special teams and 6 on 5 when you aren't the first team to possess the puck.

2. Defensive Puck Mover -- While improved, there are times when I still shake my head with their inability to bring the puck up the ice and even make that first pass.  In their own zone, there is a good crew that is able to get the puck back and be relentless on the opposition, almost unforgiving, but after that, the giveaways are really really killing this team.  Against the Blues they gave it away NINE TIMES to ZERO.  You wonder why Cam Talbot leads the league in shots faced?  That's why.  Finding that right-shot offensive-defensemen quarterback is crucial if you want to make a Cup-run and why the Sharks with Brent Burns have a great chance of making it to the Final again.  Further, setting up the powerplay is accomplished by having such a defensemen.  Yes, that guy was supposed to be Justin Schultz, who's thriving in Pittsburgh, but it's a different game out East.

3. Backup Goalie -- Chiarelli is confident in seeing MacT's Smid trade for Laurent Brossoit improve at practice.  When I saw that he didn't trade for Bolt's goalie Ben Bishop, which L.A. smartly did, or Nuiverth from Philly, or Halak from the Isles, it told me right there that Pete didn't think the Oilers would go deep into the playoffs, but if they did, Talbot would essentially be backing up himself.

4. The Farm
With further trading for depth and AHL talent in big forward Fontaine and huge right-shot defenseman Ryan Mantha, Chiarelli is seeing a longer-game here with the whole organization.  There needs to be more depth in the Bake and with a pile of RFAs on the block, more competition results in more incentive, which causes your big league bottom six and bottom pair to pay attention or you end up buried like Mark Fayne or a yo-yo call-up like Anton Lander.

Playoffs:

With 16 games remaining (11 at home, 5 away, 10 vs Pacific div teams) a lot can happen in a flash.

I'm predicting the Oilers beat the teams that are well below them in regulation, get a point against the teams that are close to them, and lose against the teams that are better than them--except the Habs (Oilers usually beat them at home), but lose the first against the Ducks on the back-to-back. We get:

+2 Red Wings
+2 Islanders
0 Penguins
+2 Canadiens
+2 Stars
+1 Bruins
+2 Canucks
+1 Kings
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
9-4-5 record
23 points
74 points current
97 points total

And this matches with my prediction that the Oilers and McDavid will get the same number of points as McDavid's number.

This will put them slightly behind the Ducks, meaning the Oilers won't get the home-ice advantage against the Ducks, but they'll still beat them in the first round.

Why?  Because Oilers fans are going to go absolutely crazy fanatical again like 2006 and the rise of Oilerism as a religion will dominate the city.

I have never left said religion--as there's something to be said for wandering in the desert for 10 years where there were no fish to catch.

Until now.

Oilers running out of gas by Trade Deadline?

I'm seeing a tired team out there.  Just over a year ago when McDavid returned from a 35 game injury, Leon Draisaitl, who had previously been lighting it up with Taylor Hall, fell off the map.  His conditioning level didn't seem to keep up with the other players.  He wasn't skating as well.  His scoring touched dropped.  (DSS) Drai-Settle Syndrome was here.

This aspect of his game worried me back then and it's been worrying me for a couple months now.  He's giving away the puck more.  He's leaky on defense.  His faceoffs have been terrible.  These are all indicators of a tired player, perhaps slightly injured one.

Don't let it surprise you that, yes, many players have been stick-hacked to near death by this point in the season--where their wrists, forearms, and shins all have bruises on top of bruises.

And this is what pisses me off about the NHL reffing this year.  It's been horrible.  They've allowed or missed all these hacks and slashes because the players are taking matters into their own hands to hold opponents accountable.  The inconsistency of penalty-calling has been atrocious, so much so that the Flames organization had to meet with the refs to talk about why they're penalized more (not that I mind the Flames being penalized more, but they're only 4 points back of the Oilers.)

And those offside challenges.  Yikes.  Brutal.

The Oilers need to be careful and not take so many lazy penalties, especially with inconsistent reffing.  Getting called on a lazy penalty means you're tired.  Then coupled with tired penalty-killing units, you're doomed because you're not as focused, nor as threatening as a defender.

Road trips can do that to you--especially for Western teams and the much longer haul in miles travelled and Edmonton is one of the furthest.  Then think about the climate switch.  So many factors can nibble away at your ability to remain on your game.  It tends to happen to younger players who aren't used to the toils of a long 82 game season.  Draisaitl's not there yet.  Nor can I imagine is McDavid, Caggulia, Benning, and Klefbom--none of whom has yet to play a full 82 game season.

McDavid is likely an exception. He's superhuman. Nobody gets hacked as much as him though. No body.  He's literally a man of steel.  Teams are trying to find their krptonite against him.  Some succeed some periods, but most don't.  He actually finds a way on the ice to get at least a point per game.  His home is on the ice.  Just like Superman.  But don't anybody put him in the isolation chamber, so he can be human and love his girlfriend.  Please.  I don't know her name, but I hope it's not Lois.

But then there's the playoffs.  Grueling--especially mentally.  Now think about Talbot.  Is his game losing some lustre of late?  I'd say it's less consistent.  I worry about him too.

Veterans know how to manage all this grueling season travel stuff.  Look at Lucic.  Have you noticed he's upped his game lately?  He should know that the real season starts mid-April.

This is where some smart trades at the trade deadline can help.  While I don't expect Chiarelli to pull off a Maroon trade again, he must be looking at the following to fill the gaps, which are:

1. 3rd line centre or middle-six right wing (Letestu is not this guy for some reason)
   -Brian Boyle (TBL): 3rd line centre, left-shot faceoff specialist. Hanzal now with Wild.
   -Radim Vrbata (AZ):  2nd line right-wing
   -Jaromir Jagr (FLA):  45 year old middle-six right-wing.  One last shot?  He certainly gives his all every game.
   
2. Backup Goalie:  Brossoit going into the playoffs is not an ideal situation
   -Bishop is now in L.A. So who?  Brian Elliott from STL for $2.5m?
   
3. 2nd pair defense right shot power play specialist: formerly known as Justin Schultz
   -Not a lot out there except Shattenkirk on the rental market.  I believe Oilers should go for him here as they can stay under cap while McDavid still under ELC.  I think they've danced before and it didn't happen then and it won't happen now.  But hey, why not ask again?

Who and what do the Oilers have in assets to trade for a rental without heavily deflating the roster?

1. Brandon Davidson (3LD) - although trading him exposes other D-men to the expansion draft
2. Jordan Oesterle (3LD) - excellent prospect with NHL experience
3. Anton Lander (4C/LW) - the most called-up and sent-down utility player in NHL history. He just won AHL player of the week springing the Bake into the playoff oven picture. He's UFA.
4. Anton Slepyshev (3RW) - fast, skilled, but shooting selection isn't the greatest
5. Griffin Reinhart (3LD) - Oilers gave up two first round picks to gamble on him. He's having a good turnaround season in the AHL, but can he keep up in the NHL?

Homestand

What the Oilers do have going for them in March is a huge homestand with a couple against the Avs, who are playing like their name.

Playoffs?

As it stands, the Western Conference playoff pictures looks like:

WILD (1st Central) 84 points vs BLUES (Wild Card #2) 67 points

SHARKS (1st Pacific) 79 points vs. FLAMES (Wild Card #1) 70 points

BLACKHAWKS (2nd Central) 83 points vs. PREDATORS (3rd central) 71 points

OILERS (2nd Pacific) 74 points vs. DUCKS (3rd Pacific) 74 points

Either way you slice it, I predict the Oilers and McDavid will end up with the same number of points as McDavid's number, and they'll play the Ducks.  Thing is, who gets home-ice advantage?  Way too tight to call, but right now, at 63 games in with 19 remaining, the Oilers are on track for 96 points and McDavid 94, so both will have to slightly up their game to match my season-opening prediction.

Even then, if the Oilers want to beat the Ducks in the first round, which they can, they'll need more veteran depth to match with the Quack.  

And this makes the play for Brian Boyle all that more important.  Make it happen, Pete.

Oilers back to old Oilering again vs. Bolts

 #Oilers #OilersNation

Why did they generate only 3 scoring chances all game?

Was it the confidence of the last three wins against Arizona, Philly, and Chicago?  Absolutely.

Brossoit?  No.  No it wasn't.  He played pretty darn well.  All those shots were tough and unexpected.

Was it the two days off?  Possibly.  The sun and weather in Florida can make you a little lethargic if you're not used to it.

Note how Draisaitl sauntered off during that line change which caused a 2 on 1 for Tampa.  If I was McLellan, I would have benched him for it.  Not acceptable.  Set an example.

Again, no one drove to the net.  No chance for a garbage goal against a team whose system, coached by Coop, is to go up a goal and play trappy and create a wall of defense so that you play on the outside and take soft shots (hello, Slepyshev and Caggiula!).  It's no secret I'm not a fan of Jon Cooper's boring system, so the way to defeat it is to take some tanks and bulldoze your way in there Looch, Maroooon, Kass, and Hendo!  That's how they beat Tippet's Trap in 'Zona!

After the game, the usual cliches were spoutedeth (<--, see, not a cliche).  "We need more urgency."  "We need to be better."  blah frickin' blah.  Meaningless.

Oilers never lose against the Panthers on their turf.  Swamp?  Everglades?  Keys?

Whatever it is...

GO TO THE NET.

Go to the net.

Go to the net.

Go to the net.

Oilers doing new Oilering

- revamped lines trigger chemistry

Line ratings (out of 10)

Maroon-McDavid-Eberle (7) - Maroon got a goal at end of game. Line never got scored on, but Eberle still on the schnide.  They handled the McGinn-Burmistrov-Reider line quite easily.

Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev (8) - The Draisaitl to Slepyshev to Klefbom goal was a thing of beauty. Didn't get scored on. They were pretty evenly matched with the Domi-Hanzel-Vrbata line.

Caggiula-Nuge-Kassian (6) - Line got scored on, well, Nuge did, but this line worked harder than expected and hit a lot, showed some chemistry.  Matched up evenly with the Perlini-Dvorak-Doan 3rd line.

Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen (7) - Hendo's goal was all hard work from all three. Got scored on. They had a minute or so against the Yote's first line and dominated them.

In watching the first period against the Yotes, the Oilers were chasing the puck, rarely gaining control.  They couldn't contain them physically either.  It was as if they were ignoring McLellan's systems.  Draisaitl gave glimmer that being in front of the net is where this game was to be won.  I was mighty pissed there were no fights or tussles.  Perhaps the Yotes knew they'd get their asses handed to them, so they didn't instigate.

As I said in my last post, the Oilers needed to attack the net and not send soft wristers from the outside as we all know the odds of scoring in front are much higher.  Let's look at each goal against the Yotes and see if my demand matches up with the result.

1. (5v4) Draisaitl took a pass in front from Lucic who was behind the net, shot-save, rebound, shot in front of the net, goal. Draisaitl's backhand control is one of the best in the whole world.

2. (5v5) Hendricks gobbled up a Pakarinen's kickshot off of Domingue's pad on left side and jammed it in from in front of the net. Classic garbage goal.

3. (5v3) Letestu took a cross-ice pass in the high slot from McDavid and one-timed it.  Done.

4. (5v5) Oilers began in their own zone after a beauty pad-save from T-Bot.  Draisaitl dipsy-doodled through the middle across the blue line, backhand-passed to Slepyshev on the right boards who very smartly let some defenders pass slightly by to open up a small passing lane, which he went tape to tape to Klefbom perfectly pinching on the left who buried the puck. This is one of the Oilers better goals of the year and where I absolutely love Klefbom and look forward to more from him here.

5. (5v5) Maroon had the puck behind the net and backhanded it to McDavid, who, like Froto, put on The Ring that makes him disappear to go through a couple people, then reappeared in another spot, to pass to Klefbom at the blue line.  Meanwhile, Maroon, plopped himself in front of the net, Klef shoots it, rebound, and Paddy falls shovelling the puck in for his 20th.  HIS TWENTIETH GOAL!

Here are the shot and goal locations courtesy of www.hockeyviz.com.

CONCLUSION

The Oilers took my advice obviously, were aggressive to the net on all 5 goals with 3 being in front of the net.  Any soft wristers didn't do jack.

This is the new Oilering.