Oilers beat Kings, take next step

 toward being a solid playoff contender.  I can't believe we're finally talking about playoffs, by the way, and it's a great feeling.  Although many of us have learned our lessons of hope and disappointment, like an ugly kid at a school dance, we wait until the next year with a wave of new students attending who we might impress them to think we're one one of the popular kids, then a couple months in, they see that we're posers.

I'm not saying I was one of those kids in school--I was too busy playing sports, but I didn't really go on a lot of dates either, not that I didn't want to.

Not only do the Oilers have some popular kids like McDavid, Eberle, Draisaitl, and Nuge, they have the bullies like Lucic, Maroon, Hendricks, Kassian, and Gryba, plus Nurse.  Then there's the scrappy guys who some don't realize would probably kick your ass like Larsson, Russell, Caggiula, and Letestu.  And with that wrecking crew, no one should touch the kids, right?

Wrong. We're still seeing McDavid get held, grabbed, and molested. I still believe those aforementioned bullies need to step in more and sacrifice--especially Lucic.  That's what he was signed up for, right?  That said, players are defending each other, something you didn't see as much before.  That's what a real TEAM is supposed to do.

The recent Arizona game was a testament to the Oilers establishing themselves this season in beating a team they never beat in regulation.  It was a nasty win with Zack Kassian literally leading the physical battle in defending his linemate Hendricks against Ekman-Larsson's take down, then dropping his gloves waiting for Shane Doan, then getting taken down by the linesman... just look at his face here...

Fuck ya.

So against the Kings, even with, Reggie Sekera, their top d-man out with illness, the defense played well, Larsson was incredibly solid in being able to handle the big Kings lineup, stopping Taffoli and Kopitar in their tracks.  It was plays like that which made believe in the Hall-Larsson trade even more.

No longer could the Kings tire out and outlast the Oilers--nay!  It was the other way around.  Even the mighty Drew Doughty, in playing 79 thousand minutes, got tired, and Draisaitl and McDavid were there right on him each time to take advantage with good chances the other way.

The biggest difference this season over the last is not just having way fewer injuries to top players, it's that all teams now have to respect the Oilers--not just because of great skill, but that at the same time, they are arguably the toughest team in the league, physically, skill-wise, and in goaltending.

And that, my friends, is the next step.

Oilers keep their heads above water, but are they in over their head?

 So the analogy goes.  After the 1/3 mark (28 games and 54 to go), the Oilers are one point ahead in the Pacific Division.  There is no doubt, they could be much further ahead if they had given it that extra push when it counted.  They have 4 overtime/shootout losses and that's 4 lost points right there and 5 games they lost by 1 which they could have realistically won 3 of them, so that's 6 points, and 10 points total, putting them top in the league.

That said, they are on the playoff bubble and a small streak of losses could see them looking on the outside.

When you see defensive-zone mistakes where players are out of position or not picking up man, not back-checking, or staring at the puck too much, little mind-blips can cause the other team to score in a blink, a loss, and no playoffs.

In the East, there are currently 6 points (3 games) between 1st and the last Wild Card spot, and 6 points between that and last place.

In the West, there are currently 9 points between 1st and the last Wild Card spot, and 9 points between that and last place.

The Oilers are only 4 points (2 games) out of a playoff spot, and the have games in hand on other teams, so any fan who sees the Oilers breaking through this year will surely be disappointed.

They are still not a complete team, and STILL have glaring holes in the lineup.

For forwards, only 4 are in the top 50 in scoring (McDavid, Eberle, Draisaitl, and Lucic).
For defense, only 2 are in the top 50 in scoring (Sekera and Klefbom).

A couple more injuries to any of those players, and the Oilers are doomed and will miss the playoffs.

Not having Davidson or Nurse in the lineup hurts this team and will hurt as Dillon Simpson is about to make his debut from the AHL.

Jesse Puljujarvi has scored only one goal and has 7 points in 21 games while Drake Caggulia has 5 points in 10 games.  As I've said many times, if the Oilers do not send Jesse down to the AHL before game 38, it will still glaringly show the lack of vision of player development.

Currently, the Oilers are barely holding their heads above water and might be in over their head.  And if they are in over their head, when they tread water they may only have a bubble to breathe out of.

But at some point, that bubble will burst.

Young Oilers can't beat trapping teams

.. and that is why they lose to the Coyotes and Wild most of the time.  The youngins aren't used to playing against this defensive structure and are unable to penetrate the zone as well as they ought, create two on ones, or even get in the slot for a decent chance on net.

Oilers are young?  Yes. Yes they are. Still.  Forever young.  Forever young.

McDavid, Puljujarvi, Draisaitl, Caggiula, Slepyshev, Pitlick, Klefbom, Benning, Talbot -- an average of less than 82 games under their belt.  That's 9 of 23 players. But that's why everyone is pissed at Eberle. He's a veteran now and should know better.

Again, too many times over the weekend did we see wingers having to skate to the outside only to lob a softy toward Mike Smith, who will save shots like that 12 times out of 10.

I, like many of you, can't stand the trap, and it's killing the game.  I wish there was an illegal defense rule like the NBA has in preventing zone defenses, which are generally quite boring in basketball (except for the attacking arrowhead).

As an aside, on Friday, that Klefbom to Larsson goal was probably the best Oilers defensive goal I have seen in years.  That's what a playoff team should look like.

Oilers now have four scoring lines

.#OilersNation
The game against Dallas saw Lander on waivers, injured Hendricks and Caggiula in, Pouliot and Letestu benched. This jumbled up the lines, but the result was a lot of chemistry.

Essentially, the Oilers now have four scoring lines that are well-balanced.  Four.  Every line has a skilled checker, a two-way centreman, and a skilled winger.

Courtesy of DailyFaceoff.com

Firstly, let's just mention that having Lucic, Maroon, Kassian, and Hendricks is a fantastic slate of big, strong checkers but who can also play.  This is what the Oilers have wanted forever.

Line 1:
This was also the first time we saw McDavid and rookie Puljujarvi on a line together and despite my misgivings on the idea, it worked really really well with McDavid's first hat trick and Puljujarvi getting two assists. He's able to keep up with the captain, something no one else on the team could do.  Lucic is the Deputy here, but he needs to step up to protect his Captain. It's what he was hired to do.

Line 2:
This line held their own, despite no points.  I've always thought Nuge and Ebs should stick together with their history.  Eberle hadn't been working out as well for McDavid due to foot speed. Maroon can play on any line, score, fight, what have you.

Line 3:
Such a strange mix of players but it worked until Kassian took a dumb 4 minute penalty with the lead.  Slepy and Drai were able to provide assists to Klefbom's goal.  Many Russians prefer playing on their offside (Ovechkin, Yakupov) and while Slepy and Drai's forehand sticks don't match on passes skating forward, with a stop in the offensive zone and pass back to the defense, the puck is then protected on the outside with the boards, allowing you to even pass off the boards easier.

Line 4:
I love this line. It could easily be a 3rd line as well.  I won't miss Lander, but we all missed Hendricks.  He's the checker here and while he may not be able to keep up with The Drake and Pitty, those two showed excellent chemistry together.

All three lines can have a checker to get the puck and dish to a centre, who passes to a winger for a shot and rebound (Puljujarvi and McDavid) or pass and shot (Caggiula to Pitlick).

Pouliot hasn't scored in a very long time and Letestu has even registered a shot on net in forever.  McLellan isn't playing favourites, even for veterans, that's for sure.  I could see Pouliot slotting in for Kassian on the third line putting Slepyshev back on the right.

Despite the good mix, what the Oilers now lack are good penalty killers, which Lander and Letestu are.  This will be the difficult part going forward, so the Oilers need to stay out of the box and not having Pouliot and Kassian take dumb penalties, is likely why McLellan keep one of them out of the lineup.

With Lander down in Bakersfield, is Letestu now the 13th forward?

Everything I said would happen, happened

 #Oilers #OilersNation
Do I know my Oilers or do I know my Oilers?  In my last post on November 4, I said the Oilers looked like they were shooting for the sake of shooting and if they only won 1 of 4 games on the Eastern road trip, that was a fail.  Here's what I said:

HypeOilers now sit 7-3-1 and are tied for first in the West.  They need to plug up their defensive positioning (as always) and they could beat the Islanders, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, but I get the feeling they'll only win 1 of 3 and go 8-6-1 after this road trip, which would be a fail and not living up to the hype that the start of the season provided, but more of the reality that many of us would expect--a team that perhaps squeaks into the playoff picture.

For that, they will need to be better than 8 wins in 15 games (.533).  Hopefully, a weak division can keep them in the top 3.

They lost to the Rangers, beat the Islanders, lost to the Penguins and beat the Red Wings.

Why have the Oilers lost so many games lately?

It's complicated and simple.   Let's look at the simple.

1.  Injuries to defensemen -- Not having Kris Russell and Brandon Davidson has impacted the team the most and put more pressure on Klefbom to perform which he has been unable to do, which then creates a domino effect to Larsson and down the line. Sekera and Klefbom need to switch positions.

2.  Save percentage -- Poorer defense causes better chances by the opponent.

3.  Corsi -- The Oilers have been outshooting their opponents but losing.  While some goalies have been hot, more shots than usual are lofters and the team is "shooting for the sake of shooting" to somehow drive up the odds on scoring.

4.  Laziness -- I'm looking at Eberle, Lucic, and Pouliot who haven't been up to snuff lately.  This causes McLellan to line juggle, kill the chemistry, and cause discontent throughout the lineup.

5.  Right-wingers playing on lines above their level.  It can be argued that Eberle is no longer a top line winger.  Keeping Puljujarvi around was out of necessity since trading Yakupov and being unable to sign Kris Versteeg.  Thankfully, Kassian and Pitlick have stepped up well to pick up the slack but neither are really top 6 guys at this time, maybe for a little while, but not consistently.

On a complicated note, looking at 1. above, the continued process of scouting, drafting, and developing good defensemen in the AHL so they hit the ground running in the NHL is vitally important to a team's overall long-term success.  If Russell wasn't injured, Benning would be in Bakersfield, and if Davidson wasn't injured, Nurse would be there too, and Gryba would be the 7th defenseman.  This has a further trickle-down effect:

1. Centres need to come back more to help the defense -- they expend more energy as a result

2. Wingers perform 1 on 3 solo-attacks because the centres aren't around (except McDavid).  They don't get in the danger zone so all they can do is shoot a weak wrister.

3. Talbot has been getting better shot attempts on him because the inexperienced defense is out of position.

Injuries happen all the time.  The other players need to step up even more and save Maroon, Kassian and Pitlick, it's not happening.

Great starts often cool

Wow, that was a hell of a start.  Haven't seen that since .... 1986!   Flashes of Gretzky+Kurri started happening and then at the Heritage Classic we saw them play together again with Smytty and Messier and Anderson and Semenko and Roloson and Cujo and MacDonald and Huddy and it was oh so glorious.

Before I continue let me give props to Matti Hagman--still one of the best Finns the Oilers have ever had and blessings to his family on his passing.  I'll never forget how really good you were.

Luck
During the hype and hoopla of the new arena, McDavid killing Calgary, Talbot standing on his head, his wife having twins, Adam Larsson proving himself quite worthy, and Kris Russel showing he's got (wait... we'll see), I was very concerned about the team PDO% (goalie save % + team shooting %) being at 106%.  The Habs were at 107%.  That had to come down naturally at some point. (100% is the norm and average.)

During the win streak, they were shooting the lights out and Talbot was crazy good.  And McLellan knew it wouldn't last, so he began emphasizing shooting... which for all you CorsiLovers and LA Kings fans is like the best thing ever.

So what do the players do?  They shoot from everywhere.  They, how did Eberle put it a year and a half ago after Eakins was let go, "Shooting for the sake of shooting."

After that win streak and three losses in a row, the Oilers PDO is down 4 points now to   0.922 + 0.101 = 1.020.

Powerplay
A big culprit in that has been the powerplay.  We'd have beat Ottawa, the Leafs, and Rangers if the PP was better.  It's been the absolute shits.  I just don't understand Woodcroft's plays.  I don't mind the drop pass to charge the blue line and gain it, but after that, like WTF?

A big part of that are the defensemen bringing up the puck and I'm sorry to say but Nurse and Russell are better than Klefbom and Sekera.  And Lucic needs to plop himself in front of the net, cause havoc a la Ryan Smyth (who I am meeting on Thursday at his new Bar94 in Lux... eeeee!).

Anyway, here's how I'd deploy the PP units:

PP Unit #1

Nuge

[ n e t ]

Puljujarvi -- Lucic -- McDavid

Nurse

Or switch Nuge and McDavid.

PP Unit #2

Draisaitl

[ n e t ]

Eberle -- Maroon -- Pouliot or Pitlick

Russell

Then the key here is to pass and attack the net to look for a give and go and to pull defenders in.  We used to do this and it worked often. There was so much movement happening, but the key was to ensure we still covered the points.

Pool Party
On Puljujarvi, I am surprised he wasn't sent down after 10 games.  I thought the organization had learned from the past about player development.  Perhaps singing Versteeg was to fill that hole, then trading Yakupov really opened it up and the #4 draft pick is here to stay.  He needs to stay on the 3rd line though.

4th Line is Tops
The 4th line will be the difference-maker in a lot of games as they have.  Lander is playing right where he should. Letestu plays better than a 4th liner but it's a 3rd liner, and
And whoever doesn't think Tyler Pitlick should stick should take a stick and shove it.  "He's like a dog after a bone." -- Dave Lumley on 630CHED.

Hype
Oilers now sit 7-3-1 and are tied for first in the West.  They need to plug up their defensive positioning (as always) and they could beat the Islanders, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, but I get the feeling they'll only win 1 of 3 and go 8-6-1 after this road trip, which would be a fail and not living up to the hype that the start of the season provided, but more of the reality that many of us would expect--a team that perhaps squeaks into the playoff picture.

For that, they will need to be better than 8 wins in 15 games (.533).  Hopefully, a weak division can keep them in the top 3.

Go Oilers!

Oilers opening day lineup at 91% of ideal

For those of you who think this line up is ideal and will get the Oilers to playoffs, you are dreaming.  With Versteeg not signing, not having a top 4 RHD quarterback, as well as rookies on the 3rd line, Oilers will have to have some puck luck and Talbot standing on his head for them to get to 93 points or better.  

How do I know?  

Below are my calculations using my handy Lineup Value Metric (LVM) for the Oilers' opening day lineup.

4 x (Lucic (3) + McDavid (5) + Eberle (4)) = 48 = 100%

Lucic is not a top line forward and is ideal as a second line winger. McDavid is better than a top line.

3 x (Pouliot (3) + Nuge (4) + Draisaitl (2)) = 27 = 100%

Nuge can play top line minutes. Draisaitl is better as a centre and is also playing his off-wing.

2 x (Maroon (2) + Caggulia (1) + Puljujarvi (1)) = 67%

Caggulia and Puljujarvi are rookies.  Look for low minutes here.  My guess is Charelli is going to hunt for a veteran right-winger before the 10 game mark to send Puljujarvi down to Bakersfield. Ideally, that's what would happen.

Oh but where's Versteeg, you ask?  Well, he wanted to play with McDavid, Nuge, or Draisaitl, not a rookie centre in Caggulia, although their chemistry seemed pretty good, he decided to sign in Calgary. Bummer.

1 x (Pitlick (0) + Letestu (1) + Kassian (1)) = 67%

Pitlick on his off-wing although it usually doesn't matter much on a 4th line yet he didn't play in big league last year. 

Forwards: 94%

4 x (Klefbom (3) + Larsson (4)) = 88%

Klefbom needs more years to be considered a true top d-man.

3 x (Sekera (3) + Russell (2)) = 83%

Russell is playing his off-handed side.

2 x (Nurse (1) + Davidson (1)) = 75%

Nurse should be in AHL.  Davidson is playing off-handed side.

Defense:  84%

5 x Talbot (4.6) = 92%
Talbot's SSV% is around 92%.

Team:  91%

A ways to go yet.  Again, 2-3 more better players needed.  And we haven't even talked about the dark road of injuries and depth.  Why Chiraelli didn't pounce on Parenteau or Pulkukainen on the waiver wire is beyond many of us. He could have had Puljujarvi develop and adjust more in Bakersfield. 

In contrast, the lineup on the last game last season was:
97% forwards
57% defense
90% goalie
79% team

Regardless, it's going to be another Oilersdrama-filled year folks. 

At least it's entertaining, right?