Oilers on track to reach my prediction of 97 points

Prediction to Reality

I've predicted that the Oilers and McDavid will end up with the same number of points as McDavid's number.

How are they doing?

PAST GAMES:
+2 Red Wings -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)+2 Islanders -> BAD WRONG (0)0 Penguins -> GOOD WRONG (+1)0 Canadiens -> BAD CORRECT (0)
+2 Stars -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)

+1 Bruins -> GOOD WRONG (+2)

+2 Canucks -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+1 Kings -> GOOD WRONG (+2)
==========

+10 TOTAL -> GOOD WRONG (+11)

87 points current after 72 games. 
10 points to meet prediction of 97 points
10 games remain. 1 point per game average to meet prediction.

FUTURE GAMES (prediction):
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
11 points (+1) ahead of prediction

Connor McDavid?
82 points in 72 games = 1.14 ppg
On track for 93 points total.  
He'll need four 3 point games to catch up.  He could very well do it against the Avalanche.

This is all not to say that I wouldn't be excited if the Oilers got more than 97 points, which I think is entirely possible, including catching up to the Sharks and taking 1st in the Pacific.

Panic time? Oilers still on track to make playoffs

At the 18 games remaining marking, below is my points prediction compared with reality.

I said that Oilers would beat teams below them in points, split points from teams that are close to them, and lose to teams that are above them in order to get 97 points.  However, I made a mistake in where they were at in points at that time (74 not 76), which means, I have to adjust my prediction and remove 2 points, so I'll take it from the Canadiens loss, who were up on them in the standings at the time of the game.

ORIGINAL PREDICTION:
+2 Red Wings
+2 Islanders
0 Penguins
0 Canadiens (previously predicted a win with +2 points)
+2 Stars
+1 Bruins
+2 Canucks
+1 Kings
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
9-4-5 record
21 points
76 points current
97 points total

After four games, the Oilers are one point back of what I should have predicted.  

PAST:
+2 Red Wings -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Islanders -> BAD WRONG (0)
0 Penguins -> GOOD WRONG (+1)
0 Canadiens -> BAD CORRECT (0)
==========
1-2-1 record
3 points gain, 3 points loss
79 points
18 points to meet prediction

FUTURE:
+2 Stars
+1 Bruins
+2 Canucks
+1 Kings
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
17 points
-1 from prediction

I now need to adjust one game prediction.  They'll beat the Bruins in regulation.

It's a tall order.  They'll need at least 90 to make the playoffs.  The worst spot to end up is in the 2nd Wild Card position to be playing either Hawks or Wild in the first round, who will either be #1 in the Western Conference.  I'm hoping for the Ducks, which means the Flames 9 game winning streak needs to end, and end now!

Oilers trade-dead

POHOGM Peter Chiarelli didn't go fishing in the big lake of players and goalies to prop-up the line-up for a playoff run.  His confidence in the current crew to steer his ship is quite the leap for many of us who, from a Cup-contender perspective, do not see a complete team.

The goal at the outset of the season was obviously to improve and hopefully squeak into a wild card spot, but they exceeded that and levelled out to be consistently in the #2 or #3 spot in the Pacific, jousting with the Ducks.

The team isn't without its issues although not as far glaring as in previous years.

Bright spots:

1. The top line, although I've questioned Draisaitl's conditioning as of late.

2. Cam Talbot -- Many have suggested he's been the real MVP of the year, not McDavid.

3. Mark Letestu -- who excels when there is one less skater on the ice either way.  I wonder if growing up in a remote town like Elk Point, Alberta ingrained the idea that more open space is preferable and easier to work with.  Having him centre the 4th line is a good home as he props-up Hendo and Kass or Pak quite well.

Weak points:

1. Middle six forwards -- Their lack of production, faceoff wankery, and ho-humbness hasn't been a difference-maker.  They're average at best.  This is an area where Chiarelli at least addressed one spot by trading for David Desharnais.  I was always leery of NCAA-talent Drake Caggiula slotting right into the 3C spot in his rookie year.  He's got skills, but I think a stint in the AHL would do wonders for his confidence.  The Oilers are near last in faceoff percentage.  Tough to win on special teams and 6 on 5 when you aren't the first team to possess the puck.

2. Defensive Puck Mover -- While improved, there are times when I still shake my head with their inability to bring the puck up the ice and even make that first pass.  In their own zone, there is a good crew that is able to get the puck back and be relentless on the opposition, almost unforgiving, but after that, the giveaways are really really killing this team.  Against the Blues they gave it away NINE TIMES to ZERO.  You wonder why Cam Talbot leads the league in shots faced?  That's why.  Finding that right-shot offensive-defensemen quarterback is crucial if you want to make a Cup-run and why the Sharks with Brent Burns have a great chance of making it to the Final again.  Further, setting up the powerplay is accomplished by having such a defensemen.  Yes, that guy was supposed to be Justin Schultz, who's thriving in Pittsburgh, but it's a different game out East.

3. Backup Goalie -- Chiarelli is confident in seeing MacT's Smid trade for Laurent Brossoit improve at practice.  When I saw that he didn't trade for Bolt's goalie Ben Bishop, which L.A. smartly did, or Nuiverth from Philly, or Halak from the Isles, it told me right there that Pete didn't think the Oilers would go deep into the playoffs, but if they did, Talbot would essentially be backing up himself.

4. The Farm
With further trading for depth and AHL talent in big forward Fontaine and huge right-shot defenseman Ryan Mantha, Chiarelli is seeing a longer-game here with the whole organization.  There needs to be more depth in the Bake and with a pile of RFAs on the block, more competition results in more incentive, which causes your big league bottom six and bottom pair to pay attention or you end up buried like Mark Fayne or a yo-yo call-up like Anton Lander.

Playoffs:

With 16 games remaining (11 at home, 5 away, 10 vs Pacific div teams) a lot can happen in a flash.

I'm predicting the Oilers beat the teams that are well below them in regulation, get a point against the teams that are close to them, and lose against the teams that are better than them--except the Habs (Oilers usually beat them at home), but lose the first against the Ducks on the back-to-back. We get:

+2 Red Wings
+2 Islanders
0 Penguins
+2 Canadiens
+2 Stars
+1 Bruins
+2 Canucks
+1 Kings
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
9-4-5 record
23 points
74 points current
97 points total

And this matches with my prediction that the Oilers and McDavid will get the same number of points as McDavid's number.

This will put them slightly behind the Ducks, meaning the Oilers won't get the home-ice advantage against the Ducks, but they'll still beat them in the first round.

Why?  Because Oilers fans are going to go absolutely crazy fanatical again like 2006 and the rise of Oilerism as a religion will dominate the city.

I have never left said religion--as there's something to be said for wandering in the desert for 10 years where there were no fish to catch.

Until now.

Oilers running out of gas by Trade Deadline?

I'm seeing a tired team out there.  Just over a year ago when McDavid returned from a 35 game injury, Leon Draisaitl, who had previously been lighting it up with Taylor Hall, fell off the map.  His conditioning level didn't seem to keep up with the other players.  He wasn't skating as well.  His scoring touched dropped.  (DSS) Drai-Settle Syndrome was here.

This aspect of his game worried me back then and it's been worrying me for a couple months now.  He's giving away the puck more.  He's leaky on defense.  His faceoffs have been terrible.  These are all indicators of a tired player, perhaps slightly injured one.

Don't let it surprise you that, yes, many players have been stick-hacked to near death by this point in the season--where their wrists, forearms, and shins all have bruises on top of bruises.

And this is what pisses me off about the NHL reffing this year.  It's been horrible.  They've allowed or missed all these hacks and slashes because the players are taking matters into their own hands to hold opponents accountable.  The inconsistency of penalty-calling has been atrocious, so much so that the Flames organization had to meet with the refs to talk about why they're penalized more (not that I mind the Flames being penalized more, but they're only 4 points back of the Oilers.)

And those offside challenges.  Yikes.  Brutal.

The Oilers need to be careful and not take so many lazy penalties, especially with inconsistent reffing.  Getting called on a lazy penalty means you're tired.  Then coupled with tired penalty-killing units, you're doomed because you're not as focused, nor as threatening as a defender.

Road trips can do that to you--especially for Western teams and the much longer haul in miles travelled and Edmonton is one of the furthest.  Then think about the climate switch.  So many factors can nibble away at your ability to remain on your game.  It tends to happen to younger players who aren't used to the toils of a long 82 game season.  Draisaitl's not there yet.  Nor can I imagine is McDavid, Caggulia, Benning, and Klefbom--none of whom has yet to play a full 82 game season.

McDavid is likely an exception. He's superhuman. Nobody gets hacked as much as him though. No body.  He's literally a man of steel.  Teams are trying to find their krptonite against him.  Some succeed some periods, but most don't.  He actually finds a way on the ice to get at least a point per game.  His home is on the ice.  Just like Superman.  But don't anybody put him in the isolation chamber, so he can be human and love his girlfriend.  Please.  I don't know her name, but I hope it's not Lois.

But then there's the playoffs.  Grueling--especially mentally.  Now think about Talbot.  Is his game losing some lustre of late?  I'd say it's less consistent.  I worry about him too.

Veterans know how to manage all this grueling season travel stuff.  Look at Lucic.  Have you noticed he's upped his game lately?  He should know that the real season starts mid-April.

This is where some smart trades at the trade deadline can help.  While I don't expect Chiarelli to pull off a Maroon trade again, he must be looking at the following to fill the gaps, which are:

1. 3rd line centre or middle-six right wing (Letestu is not this guy for some reason)
   -Brian Boyle (TBL): 3rd line centre, left-shot faceoff specialist. Hanzal now with Wild.
   -Radim Vrbata (AZ):  2nd line right-wing
   -Jaromir Jagr (FLA):  45 year old middle-six right-wing.  One last shot?  He certainly gives his all every game.
   
2. Backup Goalie:  Brossoit going into the playoffs is not an ideal situation
   -Bishop is now in L.A. So who?  Brian Elliott from STL for $2.5m?
   
3. 2nd pair defense right shot power play specialist: formerly known as Justin Schultz
   -Not a lot out there except Shattenkirk on the rental market.  I believe Oilers should go for him here as they can stay under cap while McDavid still under ELC.  I think they've danced before and it didn't happen then and it won't happen now.  But hey, why not ask again?

Who and what do the Oilers have in assets to trade for a rental without heavily deflating the roster?

1. Brandon Davidson (3LD) - although trading him exposes other D-men to the expansion draft
2. Jordan Oesterle (3LD) - excellent prospect with NHL experience
3. Anton Lander (4C/LW) - the most called-up and sent-down utility player in NHL history. He just won AHL player of the week springing the Bake into the playoff oven picture. He's UFA.
4. Anton Slepyshev (3RW) - fast, skilled, but shooting selection isn't the greatest
5. Griffin Reinhart (3LD) - Oilers gave up two first round picks to gamble on him. He's having a good turnaround season in the AHL, but can he keep up in the NHL?

Homestand

What the Oilers do have going for them in March is a huge homestand with a couple against the Avs, who are playing like their name.

Playoffs?

As it stands, the Western Conference playoff pictures looks like:

WILD (1st Central) 84 points vs BLUES (Wild Card #2) 67 points

SHARKS (1st Pacific) 79 points vs. FLAMES (Wild Card #1) 70 points

BLACKHAWKS (2nd Central) 83 points vs. PREDATORS (3rd central) 71 points

OILERS (2nd Pacific) 74 points vs. DUCKS (3rd Pacific) 74 points

Either way you slice it, I predict the Oilers and McDavid will end up with the same number of points as McDavid's number, and they'll play the Ducks.  Thing is, who gets home-ice advantage?  Way too tight to call, but right now, at 63 games in with 19 remaining, the Oilers are on track for 96 points and McDavid 94, so both will have to slightly up their game to match my season-opening prediction.

Even then, if the Oilers want to beat the Ducks in the first round, which they can, they'll need more veteran depth to match with the Quack.  

And this makes the play for Brian Boyle all that more important.  Make it happen, Pete.

Oilers back to old Oilering again vs. Bolts

 #Oilers #OilersNation

Why did they generate only 3 scoring chances all game?

Was it the confidence of the last three wins against Arizona, Philly, and Chicago?  Absolutely.

Brossoit?  No.  No it wasn't.  He played pretty darn well.  All those shots were tough and unexpected.

Was it the two days off?  Possibly.  The sun and weather in Florida can make you a little lethargic if you're not used to it.

Note how Draisaitl sauntered off during that line change which caused a 2 on 1 for Tampa.  If I was McLellan, I would have benched him for it.  Not acceptable.  Set an example.

Again, no one drove to the net.  No chance for a garbage goal against a team whose system, coached by Coop, is to go up a goal and play trappy and create a wall of defense so that you play on the outside and take soft shots (hello, Slepyshev and Caggiula!).  It's no secret I'm not a fan of Jon Cooper's boring system, so the way to defeat it is to take some tanks and bulldoze your way in there Looch, Maroooon, Kass, and Hendo!  That's how they beat Tippet's Trap in 'Zona!

After the game, the usual cliches were spoutedeth (<--, see, not a cliche).  "We need more urgency."  "We need to be better."  blah frickin' blah.  Meaningless.

Oilers never lose against the Panthers on their turf.  Swamp?  Everglades?  Keys?

Whatever it is...

GO TO THE NET.

Go to the net.

Go to the net.

Go to the net.

Oilers doing new Oilering

- revamped lines trigger chemistry

Line ratings (out of 10)

Maroon-McDavid-Eberle (7) - Maroon got a goal at end of game. Line never got scored on, but Eberle still on the schnide.  They handled the McGinn-Burmistrov-Reider line quite easily.

Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev (8) - The Draisaitl to Slepyshev to Klefbom goal was a thing of beauty. Didn't get scored on. They were pretty evenly matched with the Domi-Hanzel-Vrbata line.

Caggiula-Nuge-Kassian (6) - Line got scored on, well, Nuge did, but this line worked harder than expected and hit a lot, showed some chemistry.  Matched up evenly with the Perlini-Dvorak-Doan 3rd line.

Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen (7) - Hendo's goal was all hard work from all three. Got scored on. They had a minute or so against the Yote's first line and dominated them.

In watching the first period against the Yotes, the Oilers were chasing the puck, rarely gaining control.  They couldn't contain them physically either.  It was as if they were ignoring McLellan's systems.  Draisaitl gave glimmer that being in front of the net is where this game was to be won.  I was mighty pissed there were no fights or tussles.  Perhaps the Yotes knew they'd get their asses handed to them, so they didn't instigate.

As I said in my last post, the Oilers needed to attack the net and not send soft wristers from the outside as we all know the odds of scoring in front are much higher.  Let's look at each goal against the Yotes and see if my demand matches up with the result.

1. (5v4) Draisaitl took a pass in front from Lucic who was behind the net, shot-save, rebound, shot in front of the net, goal. Draisaitl's backhand control is one of the best in the whole world.

2. (5v5) Hendricks gobbled up a Pakarinen's kickshot off of Domingue's pad on left side and jammed it in from in front of the net. Classic garbage goal.

3. (5v3) Letestu took a cross-ice pass in the high slot from McDavid and one-timed it.  Done.

4. (5v5) Oilers began in their own zone after a beauty pad-save from T-Bot.  Draisaitl dipsy-doodled through the middle across the blue line, backhand-passed to Slepyshev on the right boards who very smartly let some defenders pass slightly by to open up a small passing lane, which he went tape to tape to Klefbom perfectly pinching on the left who buried the puck. This is one of the Oilers better goals of the year and where I absolutely love Klefbom and look forward to more from him here.

5. (5v5) Maroon had the puck behind the net and backhanded it to McDavid, who, like Froto, put on The Ring that makes him disappear to go through a couple people, then reappeared in another spot, to pass to Klefbom at the blue line.  Meanwhile, Maroon, plopped himself in front of the net, Klef shoots it, rebound, and Paddy falls shovelling the puck in for his 20th.  HIS TWENTIETH GOAL!

Here are the shot and goal locations courtesy of www.hockeyviz.com.

CONCLUSION

The Oilers took my advice obviously, were aggressive to the net on all 5 goals with 3 being in front of the net.  Any soft wristers didn't do jack.

This is the new Oilering.

Oilers doing old oilering

Holy giveaway city.  Holy lack of scoring.  Holy goalie, Talbs.  What is going on?  Is it 2014?

There's been a belief by many that since Kris Russell has been on the team, they've been much better.  Well, he sure does block a million shots.  But hold on, he played like crap just before he got injured.  

And now, defensively, the giveaways are back to curse them.  I always thought the curse was Rexall Place.  Is it overconfidence? 

Good defense begets better defense from others, and obviously helps Talbot. When one or two cogs break down, the wheel can come off and roll down the stairs in Ford Hall over 104 Ave and right out into the pit where the Winter Garden is going to be. 

When are the middle six forwards going to score?   Ever?  One goal every five games isn't enough. 

My dad texted me from Arizona asking what's gotten into the Oilers?  And I said they are not being aggressive to the net.  When they're aggressive, they win. All these soft shots don't add up to jack if they don't do real damage.  

That five day break got them a little too relaxed.  For McDavid, well, he seemed mighty relaxed with his lady on Instagram.  

Hey, but Nuge got in a fight and handled himself, so there's that, right?