Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Oilers opening day lineup at 91% of ideal

For those of you who think this line up is ideal and will get the Oilers to playoffs, you are dreaming.  With Versteeg not signing, not having a top 4 RHD quarterback, as well as rookies on the 3rd line, Oilers will have to have some puck luck and Talbot standing on his head for them to get to 93 points or better.  

How do I know?  

Below are my calculations using my handy Lineup Value Metric (LVM) for the Oilers' opening day lineup.

4 x (Lucic (3) + McDavid (5) + Eberle (4)) = 48 = 100%

Lucic is not a top line forward and is ideal as a second line winger. McDavid is better than a top line.

3 x (Pouliot (3) + Nuge (4) + Draisaitl (2)) = 27 = 100%

Nuge can play top line minutes. Draisaitl is better as a centre and is also playing his off-wing.

2 x (Maroon (2) + Caggulia (1) + Puljujarvi (1)) = 67%

Caggulia and Puljujarvi are rookies.  Look for low minutes here.  My guess is Charelli is going to hunt for a veteran right-winger before the 10 game mark to send Puljujarvi down to Bakersfield. Ideally, that's what would happen.

Oh but where's Versteeg, you ask?  Well, he wanted to play with McDavid, Nuge, or Draisaitl, not a rookie centre in Caggulia, although their chemistry seemed pretty good, he decided to sign in Calgary. Bummer.

1 x (Pitlick (0) + Letestu (1) + Kassian (1)) = 67%

Pitlick on his off-wing although it usually doesn't matter much on a 4th line yet he didn't play in big league last year. 

Forwards: 94%

4 x (Klefbom (3) + Larsson (4)) = 88%

Klefbom needs more years to be considered a true top d-man.

3 x (Sekera (3) + Russell (2)) = 83%

Russell is playing his off-handed side.

2 x (Nurse (1) + Davidson (1)) = 75%

Nurse should be in AHL.  Davidson is playing off-handed side.

Defense:  84%

5 x Talbot (4.6) = 92%
Talbot's SSV% is around 92%.

Team:  91%
A ways to go yet.  Again, 2-3 more better players needed.  And we haven't even talked about the dark road of injuries and depth.  Why Chiraelli didn't pounce on Parenteau or Pulkukainen on the waiver wire is beyond many of us. He could have had Puljujarvi develop and adjust more in Bakersfield. 

In contrast, the lineup on the last game last season was:
97% forwards
57% defense
90% goalie
79% team

Regardless, it's going to be another Oilersdrama-filled year folks. 

At least it's entertaining, right?