Oilers opening day lineup at 91% of ideal

For those of you who think this line up is ideal and will get the Oilers to playoffs, you are dreaming.  With Versteeg not signing, not having a top 4 RHD quarterback, as well as rookies on the 3rd line, Oilers will have to have some puck luck and Talbot standing on his head for them to get to 93 points or better.  

How do I know?  

Below are my calculations using my handy Lineup Value Metric (LVM) for the Oilers' opening day lineup.

4 x (Lucic (3) + McDavid (5) + Eberle (4)) = 48 = 100%

Lucic is not a top line forward and is ideal as a second line winger. McDavid is better than a top line.

3 x (Pouliot (3) + Nuge (4) + Draisaitl (2)) = 27 = 100%

Nuge can play top line minutes. Draisaitl is better as a centre and is also playing his off-wing.

2 x (Maroon (2) + Caggulia (1) + Puljujarvi (1)) = 67%

Caggulia and Puljujarvi are rookies.  Look for low minutes here.  My guess is Charelli is going to hunt for a veteran right-winger before the 10 game mark to send Puljujarvi down to Bakersfield. Ideally, that's what would happen.

Oh but where's Versteeg, you ask?  Well, he wanted to play with McDavid, Nuge, or Draisaitl, not a rookie centre in Caggulia, although their chemistry seemed pretty good, he decided to sign in Calgary. Bummer.

1 x (Pitlick (0) + Letestu (1) + Kassian (1)) = 67%

Pitlick on his off-wing although it usually doesn't matter much on a 4th line yet he didn't play in big league last year. 

Forwards: 94%

4 x (Klefbom (3) + Larsson (4)) = 88%

Klefbom needs more years to be considered a true top d-man.

3 x (Sekera (3) + Russell (2)) = 83%

Russell is playing his off-handed side.

2 x (Nurse (1) + Davidson (1)) = 75%

Nurse should be in AHL.  Davidson is playing off-handed side.

Defense:  84%

5 x Talbot (4.6) = 92%
Talbot's SSV% is around 92%.

Team:  91%

A ways to go yet.  Again, 2-3 more better players needed.  And we haven't even talked about the dark road of injuries and depth.  Why Chiraelli didn't pounce on Parenteau or Pulkukainen on the waiver wire is beyond many of us. He could have had Puljujarvi develop and adjust more in Bakersfield. 

In contrast, the lineup on the last game last season was:
97% forwards
57% defense
90% goalie
79% team

Regardless, it's going to be another Oilersdrama-filled year folks. 

At least it's entertaining, right?

Oilers latest at World Cup of Hockey, Centres, Young Stars, PTOs, and Rogers Place

Yay! Hockey season is back!  Yaaaayyyyyy!!!!!!  I love the Fall. Beautiful weather. New big huge bad ass building near the office and ten minute Uber from home.

Oilers / Team Europe centre Leon Draisaitl scores on Czech Republic in the World Cup of Hockey Tournament. Image courtesy of Yahoo.com.

Oilers in the World Cup of Hockey Tournament:

G+A=P (+/-)
1+2=3  (+1) Nugent-Hopkins (North America)
0+3=3  (+1) McDavid (North America)
2+0=2  (+3) Draisaitl (Europe)
0+0=0  (+1) Sekera (Europe)

In the prelim round, Draisaitl got a hat-trick. In a two game span, he was scoring at a rate of about 1 goal per 5 minutes.  That's absolute insanity.

Centres

There was some talk this Summer of trading Nuge or Draisaitl to free up cap space for another right-shot d-man then bringing in a 3rd line centreman like David Backes.  Didn't happen. Whatever.  So are you as excited as I am with having three highly-skilled and very smart two way players like McD, Nuge, and Drai?  

Here's the thing.  I think Drai needs to be on the 3rd line.  Why?  Unless he's dramatically improved his conditioning to last longer, being on the 3rd line will cut his minutes.

Generally, it goes like this, and often it's based on salary.  Duh. That's called value, man.
1st line:  20-22 minutes per game
2nd line: 16-19 minutes per game
3rd line: 11-15 minutes per game
4th line:   5-10 minutes per game

But with the Oilers, you could almost even the 2nd and 3rd line minutes depending on who's having the better game.  That's called competition, man.

Young Stars

There's no doubt Jesse Puljujarvi was lighting it up as he should.  So let's mention some of the other notable players like forwards Drake Caggulia, Patrick Russell, defenseman Ethan Bear, and goalies Nick Ellis and Keven Bouchard who all played very well.  Oilers swept the tourney which indicates to me that, initially, the Oilers depth and development system is looking better than the Flames and Canucks.  That's called better management, man.

PTOs

Oilers true depth on right-wing has been a contentious issue with the Yakupov banner-wavers claiming no such thing exists or that Eberle isn't good enough so trade him for defense.  Well, unless you have a solution to fill in for Ebs, like Lucic is doing for Hall's departure, then shut. your. trap.

Every Yakupov package trade scenario has been contemplated but the fact of the matter from Chiarelli's mouth is Yak's trade value is a 4th round draft pick, while the #2 pick right after Yak, defenseman Ryan Murray, is playing on Team North America.  Damn Katz.  Do you just play out Yak's contract and see if his value increases to dump him for pucks or better?  Seems so.  That said, they may put Yak with McDavid to up his value although Drai on the 3rd line isn't bad either.

Solution?  A Personal Try Out was offered to and accepted by middle-6 right-winger Kris Versteeg, who was playing in the Swiss League, and with some confusion over his health insurance from years ago, and management being on the ball, he "popped loose".  Versteeg is the near the exact type of player the Oilers need on the right wing.  Already heavy on the left side, having Versteeg's possession numbers are 1st line quality and better than Teddy Purcell--meaning, he wins puck battles to pop loose (saying that a lot, aren't I?) and pass to Nuge or Drai.

What this also allows the Oilers to do is keep Jesse Puljujarvi in the AHL to develop to the rink size--although at the Young Stars tourney, it didn't seem to phase him.  This would be the smart move.  Have placeholder players.  There's no rush with Jesse.  Finally the Oilers can do what they've needed to do for a long time and that is to stop rushing players and exposing them to young-bone injuries, but have them hit the ground running when they're a little older, stronger, and wiser.  That's called better development, man.

As it's now obvious Chiarelli couldn't find another right-shot d-man over the summer, a last-minute PTO was offered to previous Oilers huge right-handed d-man Eric Gryba.  This is a good move as the Oilers still don't have ANYONE to fill that spot other than moving a lefty to the right side.  I'm done with all of you who think a lefty there makes sense. Stop it.  That's called a better ideal scenario, man.  Would someone better than Fayne on 2nd pair be ideal. Yes it would. Gryba will be a stop gap.

The other potential PTO is for former Flames lefty d-man, Kris Russell.  Wow, what are the odds of two Kris' being offered a PTO?  Zero.  Russell would be the fill-in 7th man while Nurse, Reinhart, and Oesterle develop for another year.  Nurse needs to be a dominating d-man in the AHL in order to be impact in the NHL and he's not quite there yet.

The Lineup

This leaves the potential lineup as follows:

Lucic - McDavid - Eberle

Pouliot - Nuge - Versteeg

Maroon - Draisaitl - Yakupov

Hendricks - Letestu - Kassian

(Lander - Pakarainen)

Klefbom - Larsson 

Sekera - Fayne

Davidson - Gryba

(Russell, Oesterle)

You know, save a couple spots, this is a solid hockey team.  The best one the Oilers have had since...

Mr. Rogers Neighborhood Place

Ford Hall at Rogers Place. Image courtesy of the Edmonton Journal.

I took the tour on the Sunday.  It's big. The "bridge" called "Ford Hall" over 104th Avenue is just pure awesome and the artwork spectacular.  It really will bridge the downtown core with the arena without having billions of fans cross the road by foot.  It feels like an airport coming in and certainly takes a while for one to get to their seats. 

When you get in, there are so many lounges. So many kinds of seats.   The casino I hear isn't as big as everyone thought it would be.  We didn't pop in but I like roulette.  Maybe I'll only play after a game if the Oilers lose (so hopefully rarely).

Lots of up escalators but didn't see any down ones (maybe one).  It also felt like they really want you to stay on your level as it's difficult to get up and down once you find the back stairs.

The seats themselves were disappointing.  Seems all the upper level seats weren't any wider than Rexall although there was about one more inch for my knees to the seat in front.  Only the lower bowl had cup holders and a smattering of wider seats.  I'm loving Commonwealth Stadium with the wider seats and cup holders--was hoping it would be the same for all seats at Rogers Place.  The sight lines are what stand out.

No more gambit for the fans to watch and howl at the players as they come to and from the dressing room.  Like in Pittsburgh, there is a glassed lounge.  But access to underneath the stands is Forbodden!

The dressing room is what it should be--a semi-circle so all are equal.  The theatre room to go over video is big and roomy.  The physical and training rooms are massive.  All good things for the players to have the best.

Parking?  Just don't do it.  Take the nearest LRT in your area to a downtown station and if you're on the Capital Line, switch to the Metro Line.  I bet you many folks will be parking in Kingsway Garden Mall and LRTing it over one station.

Anyway, thanks for reading.  Lots of exciting Oilerama going on.  I've moved to a new house and have setup my man cave with Oiler stuff, goal lite, and more.  I figure if I don't attend a few home games, I'll be able to pay for the house in no time!

The Oilers should do the smart thing

 Ever since Rebuild 1.0, the Oilers have had to use rookies in top positions to fill the void left from management unable to find the right free agents, the right draft choices, and not even having a sole farm team to plop those drafted players into for development until they were fully ready to hit the ground running to play in the big league.

That scenario put new coach Tom Renney in a difficult position to find that balance between "protecting the kids" to winning, knowing they were the better players on the team.  Then injuries ensued and the Oilers had to call up almost half of the Oklahoma City Barons roster to fill in.  Renney knew the real reason he was fired was because he knew the management was terrible in not providing him developed NHL-ready players.  What was he supposed to do?

Two coaches later, nothing really changed much.  When you look at the drafted and developed players who went from the AHL to the NHL, the Oilers cupboard is pretty bare.  Not only that, there were many first round top draft picks, including #1s that didn't even play in the NHL.  Look here to see the carnage.

Since 2007, out of the 76 players drafted, about 1/3 have played NHL minutes and 1/4 regular minutes.  Since 2010, about 12 players.

Here's a list of the players since 2007 who at least had some regular minutes and where they are now:

By Kevin Lowe:
#6 Sam Gagner - Oilers regular then traded by MacT
#22 Jordan Eberle - 11 games in AHL before Oilers regular

By Steve Tambellini:
#40 Anton Lander - AHL, then Oilers fill-in
#10 Magnus Paajarvi - Oilers regular then traded by MacT
#1 Taylor Hall - Oilers regular then traded by Chiarelli
#31 Tyler Pitlick - AHL, some NHL time
#46 Martin Marincin - AHL, Oilers regular, then traded by MacT
#162 Brandon Davidson - AHL, then Oilers regular
#1 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Oilers regular
#19 Oscar Klefbom - AHL, then Oilers regular
#1 Nail Yakupov - Oilers regular
#63 Jujhar Khaira - AHL, some NHL time

By Craig MacTavish:
#7 Darnell Nurse - AHL, Oilers regular?
#3 Leon Draisaitl - short AHL stint, Oilers regular

By Peter Chiarelli:
#1 Connor McDavid - Oilers regular

9/16 players with 7 traded.

Of those non-#1 draft picks only Kevin Lowe's picks of Sam Gagner did not start in the AHL. (Of course, many drafted had to complete their years of junior hockey.)  Everybody else had a shorter or longer stint in the AHL.

I would argue that if the Oilers had a deeper organization from better drafting, then there wouldn't be a need to rush these other picks onto the team.

So, what to do with this years' #4 draft pick 18 year old right winger Jesse Puljujarvi?

Jesse Puljujarvi image courtesy of gettyimages and the NHL

Many would say he will make the NHL this year, but the history shows that he will have to play more junior/other league. He's only 18 and only if you are from the CHL do you have to be 20 to play in the AHL, so he can be sent down.  He needs to get used to the smaller rink and the heavier style of play here.  There's no doubt that he will be impactful NHL player.

The question is, for how long should Puljujarvi play in the minors?

In looking at the right side of the forward lineup as far as experience and where they should be playing:

1. Jordan Eberle is most certainly a top line scoring winger.
2. Nail Yakupov is not a top line guy, nor is he a 3rd line checker, but more of a 2nd line scoring/power play guy.  Trade rumours abound.
3. Zack Kassian may be deemed a 3rd line checking forward but he's better positioned as a 4th line two-way winger.  
4. Iiro Pakarainen is a lesser version of Kassian.
5. Tyler Pitlick has a chance to make his case again.

So essentially the Oilers are not really deep on the right wing of overly impactful players.

What to do?  What to do?

If Yakupov does get traded, Chiarelli himself told a friend of mine that he's only been offered a 4th round pick.  If that's the case, then it leaves a hole on that 2nd line to be filled by a veteran free agent. Names like Vrbata pop up.

Ideally, Puljujarvi would play a season or two in the minors in North America.  Then he would easily slide in on a middle six role.

Let's hope the newerish management sticks to their guns and doesn't rush this player.

#Oilers need one more right-shot defenseman

 who can take a pass from his leftside partner, skate and move the puck to his blue line and pass up to a streaking McDavid tape to tape, forehand to forehand, let alone a good shot on the powerplay to open up the zone even a wee bit for McThreadTheNeedle.

The angle from a left-shooting guy, even on the right side of the ice to the middle lane is tighter than from an ideal right-shooting player, especially if he's near the boards or is using his body to protect the puck between him and the boards.

It's why Eberle plays so well with McDavid, why Kurri and Gretzky were pure magic, and why having a lefty-to-righty skilled pairs is virtually vital to playmaking in hockey.

Having Tyson Barrie from the Avalanche, a 24 year old RFA who is now in salary arbitration, was deemed by coach Patrick Roy as a 5th defenseman. His value is much more than that.

From http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca, we can clearly see Barrie is a top pairing offensive defenseman.

Peter Chiarelli declared that he's happy with the team lineup now.  I don't know a single Oilers fan who is though.  He has to say that in case he's unable to make a deal.

But that doesn't mean Pete's not going to keep working to make it even better and more ideal.  That's why he offered the Avs Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov, and a 1st round pick, but it was apparently and obviously turned down as the Avs would want a decent defenseman in return.

It can be argued that Barrie is better than Larsson and would garner more in return than Taylor Hall, say Nugent-Hopkins + Brandon Davidson/Darnell Nurse + 2017 1st Round Pick.

Listening to Bob Stauffer on Monday, he thinks as Barrie's arbitration goes on, his trade value goes down as the Avs will want to unload him more instead of lose him to free agency.

He then suggested that a three-way deal with Anaheim might be in store with Fowler going the Avs.  Fowler is not nearly as good as Barrie but makes a little more $4m to $3.2m.

Barrie is even better than Sekera ($5.5m) so he'd have every inclination to demand at least that.  And the Oilers could afford it.

For the expansion draft, teams can protect 7 forwards, 3 d-men, and 1 goalie, or 8 players and a goalie. Players within first 2 years of pro hockey are already protected.  If a player has a no movement clause, he counts in one of the declared protected players.

Oilers who'd already be protected include:  McDavid, Nurse, Puljujarvi

They should protect:
7 forwards:  Lucic, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Pouliot, Yakupov, Maroon
3 defensemen:  Sekera (NMC), Klefbom, Larsson
1 goalie:  Talbot

That exposes:
Forwards:  Hendricks (if he re-signs), Letestu, Kassian, Pakarinen, Lander
Defensemen:  Reinhart, Fayne, Davidson
Goalies:  Gustavsson, Brossoit

If Barrie is traded for, you'd want to protect him, so that would expose Klefbom because you'd still want to protect Larsson wouldn't you, and Sekera has a no movement clause.

So maybe, just maybe you trade Klefbom for Barrie straight up because you're going to lose him anyway if you bring Barrie for other players.  Las Vegas would be nuts not take Klefbom.

Offensive top 4 right-shot defenseman?

Solved.

Grieving about Taylor Hall

 #Oilers #OilersNation
As we lament on the loss of this gem of a player, work with me as we go through the stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.  I went through stages 1 to 4 yesterday.  Today is 5.

After getting the 1st Star, Taylor Hall throws pucks over the boards for endearing fans.  My photo.

1. Denial
I was in a meeting when a good friend texted me the news. I couldn't believe it. I went to my computer and it was confirmed. Everyone in the office was in shock. Then Subban for Weber and the two Habs fans in the office joined us in the denial. This morning, everyone woke up and wondered if it was a bad dream.

2. Anger
The anger was apparent in the media's questions to Chiarelli and even he seemed irritated. My usually cheery wife was upset all evening and she asked me if it was real.  I was pissed because of all the years of bad scouting and drafting, this was a sacrifice.

3. Bargaining
I started wondering if there was a three way deal in place that we'd get Subban from Nashville for Larsson and Yakupov or something.  A friend of mine told me that when he was at a local pizza joint, Chiarelli himself asked him what he should do and my friend said a three way deal is the only way it could happen. So, I started believing that.  Then I heard Larsson was on Stauffer's show and the three-way belief ended.

Then we all started looking at Larsson's stats to find a silver lining beyond what Chiarelli was selling us. Not a single pundit and blogger I've read thinks this was a good deal for the Oilers.  We are being sold on selling a proven player for potential.  Not that Larsson is a bad player--he's not.  He's a good, solid, young defender with a huge upside. He'll play top minutes with fellow Swede, Oscar Klefbom (if he's fully healthy).

4. Depression
As some of you know, at the Oilers Signature Event, I had Taylor sign my Gretzky/Messier-signed Titan hockey stick.






Those were my last words to him: "You deserve it."  Now my wife thinks the stick is cursed because all those players got traded after it was signed, and my friends said they'll shoot me if I try to get McDavid to sign it too.

Reading Connor McDavid's comments about how Taylor mentored him and took him under his wing really hit home--it was as if #4 died in an accident or something.

“I want to express thanks for all that he’s done for me because he’s done so much. I’ll never really know how I can repay him, or if I’ll ever be able to, for what he’s done for me this year.

“He’s a guy who took me under his wing right away. It’s hard to explain how much that means to me.”

We were nearly in tears, I shit you not. As we turned in for the evening, our hearts were heavy.  The Hall jersey that I bought my wife which she had signed by him laid on our bed before we hung it up in our window as a memorial to him. I then read Taylor's twitter post about how he cherished being in Edmonton.  

"Thank you to the city of Edmonton, the fans, and most of all, my teammates throughout my time with the Oilers. I will always cherish my time there and the memories that came with it."

And my reply:  "Because of you, my wife became a big fan and enjoyed coming to Oilers games with me. I can't thank you enough for it. #Hall4Ever"

Hall worked hard every game. He trained to his maximum and was in superb shape.  He was the face of the team for 5 years.  I feel bad for him, but he appears to be excited to play for the Devils.

I was hoping to see three scoring lines led by Hall, McDavid, and Nugent-Hopkins--like the Blackhawks and Penguins have.

I went to bed then had nightmares that he got traded like some bad groundhog day.

5. Acceptance
When Hall was drafted at #1, I said to my friends that the Oilers were going to be a totally different team. (I don't think I knew as much about hockey as I sort of do now.)  Well, they really weren't. Maybe more exciting because Hall is a risk-taker but a damn exciting player.  With pushing young players to play against stronger veterans, Hall saw many injuries (enough to have a whole separate blog post about it.)

Now, I'm telling myself these things to accept the fact he's not an Oiler anymore:

• When Hall was put on a line with McDavid, the chemistry wasn't there. How is this possible? 
• Eberle thinks he's a bit of a puck-hog.  Well, he does shoot more than anyone in the league
• Hall is only as good as his centre is.  When Draisaitl's play dropped off in the new year, so did Hall's game.
• He wasn't selected to be on Team Canada
• He was born in Calgary
• He has an attitude problem.  (I actually think he's simply a hard competitor)
• He was a cancer in the locker room (although McDavid doesn't think so)
• He's #4 and so was Kevin Lowe
• Oilers needed a top-4 right-shot defenseman and this IS the price to pay to get one (although adding a 2017 2nd round draft pick would have been nice)
• Larsson will work out.  Larsson will work out and be a stud d-man. It took a while for Hedman and others to develop into top defensemen and Chiarelli is confident that Larsson will work out.  Larsson will work out.

Goodbye, Taylor.  Thank YOU for the multitude of memories and excitement on the ice.

My wife's Taylor Hall signed jersey

Taylor Hall Statistics 

Globe and Mail article equates hockey on outs with Strombo

 #nhl #hnic #cbc #oilers
John Doyle from the Globe and Mail writes a seemingly convincing article that hockey is on the outs where baseball, basketball, and soccer are in because no one at the bar he was at was watching the Stanley Cup final between Pittsburgh and San Jose.

Ron mclean and george stromboulopoulos
(CHRIS YOUNG / THE CANADIAN PRESS)  

He further equates the demise of hockey with Hockey Night In Canada's host George Stromboulopoulos, assumingly hired because he could appeal to a younger crowd, getting re-replaced with elder hockey statesmen Ron MacLean who Doyle implies apparently doesn't appeal to a younger crowd, although everyone knows MacLean knows 10000% more about the people and players in the sport than everyone else combined.

He even makes the reach and blames Harper's Conservative government for latching hockey to Canadian patriotism and because conservatism is old and on the outs with the kids, so is our national winter sport.  How Liberal of him!

Nevermind the Olympic hockey gold medals.

Nevermind that all the Canadian NHL arenas (except Vancouver obviously) continually sellout their games.

Nevermind that no Canadian teams made the playoffs for the first time in a long time.

Nevermind that the drop in the Canadian dollar and sluggish economy has had an effect on Canadian small market teams like Winnipeg and Ottawa being able to afford to pay top free agents.

Nevermind that maybe a lot of hockey fans just stayed home to watch it.  I did.

While I'm not saying that baseball, basketball, and soccer are not "in"--they are more so in the bubbly centre-of-the-universe that Doyle further exemplifies for the T Dot world, where these teams reside, but maybe, just maybe Doyle should branch out to other parts of this great country, away from a couple big city Toronto bars and thinking that award shows matter for most fans who haven't really cared about anyway, to see that hockey is most definitely alive and well in every other town, small and medium-sized, in every nook and cranny, and more importantly, in the hearts of the majority of Canadians.

And if he bothered to mention or perhaps watch Rogers Hometown Hockey, he'd see that its lovable host, one Ron MacLean, is doing just that.

This article was written without even having mentioned Connor McDavid.

Countdown to Draft Day Nonsense

. #Oilers

Whoa whoa whoah. Wait a freakin' minute here. The Oilogosphere has been going nuts this past week with trade rumours of mostly nonsense and it's getting really annoying.

Edmonton Oilers Nail Yakupov is happy for some reason.
Image courtesy of National Post

Everytime we hear so-and-so is going to be traded for such-and-such, it pretty much never happens and Oilers management does something out of the rafters that no one was expecting.  Maybe they're intentially deflective rumours, but that play is usually saved for politics, not sports. Only when you hear a guy from TSN like Dreger, Freidman, or Mackenzie say there's a possibility of something happening or Bob Stauffer tweets, then you should actually take it to heart.

These Taylor Hall trade rumours are crap and have no basis in anything. Oh sure, but the website URL you say is hockeytraderumours.com or something that Jerry, your 15 year old neighbour's son is misspelling about Tayler and Seth Johns?  Well, you got me there, you insider, you!

Then there's the mazillion suggestions of who remains for right-shot defensemen, like they're some pot o' gold at the end of the rainbow tunnel mountain waterfall paradise chocolate beer rock concert featuring all of the reincarnations all the god-like musicians who've died this past year with Gordie Howe as lead elbow security.  "Messiahs" like Sami Vatanen and Tyson Barrie are off the table because they got resigned.  Let's just hope Chiarelli doesn't pull a MacT and go to the KHL for options. We know how well that worked out.  I hear Anton Belov and Cam Barker are having a hell of a season in Kamchatka and Stalinland.

That said, do we bloggers read a bazillion blogs and tweets about the Oilers and NHL and try to put something together? Of course we do. It's that or watching a 0-0 tie match in the EuroCup between Estonia and Bosnia. If you ask me, I favour Narnia.

Ok, ok, out of the wardrobe and back to reality... (see what I did there?  If you did, then read on. If not, then you can still read on.)

Needs
We've all posted a million times and had a thousand beers on what the Oilers need in personnel to get to that next level.  To recap, in case you don't know by now:

1. 1st pair RD (because Kevin Lowe)
2. 2nd pair RD (because not Mark Fayne and because Kevin Lowe)
3. 3rd line C (because Letestu is a 4th line centre, plain and simple, and although Nuge can do it, it's not ideal for a Steve Austin player ("$6 million dollar man" if you didn't get the obvious reference or that you are way too young to remember that awesome TV show) to playing on the 3rd line although the Oilers can afford it under McDavid's and Draisaitl's ELC)
4. Backup goalie (because Brossoit needs to improve more)
5. Top 6 RW (to replace Purcell, you dummies, it's not a natural position for Draisaitl)
6. 3rd line RW (debatable, Kassian can play here if he improves)

Assets
To get #1 and #2 above, the assets I believe in play are (some in package deals, some not required):
#4 2016 pick
RW Jordan Eberle (because good return for D)
C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (because very good return for D)
LD Oscar Klefbom (swap for an equal RD)

LW Benoit Pouloit (because he was already in a deal with Yak for Maroon and Vatanen that fell through)

RW Nail Yakupov (because no defense and he wants off the team)
LD Griffin Reinhart (because he has potential)

Players who need to be off the team
Again, you don't see it?  You don't know how terrible the following players are?
- LW Lauri Korpikoski (because because because bad signy sign and bad player)
- RW Nail Yakupov (the Daryl Katz experiment is over, let's move on)

UFA/RFA signy signs that need to happen:
RD Eric Gryba (because big semi-skilled RD guys are scarce)
RW Iiro Pakarinen (because he's a big all-effort 4th line right-shot guy)
LD Jordan Oesterle (because he was a fantastic call-up, go 2 years)
RD Adam Clendening (because we need right shot defensemen in the system)
RW Tyler Pitlick (already happened for a year so there)

This leaves the current roster with an ideal lineup of, with depth (*call up)

Hall - Draisaitl - ?

Pouliot - McDavid - Eberle

Maroon - Nugent-Hopkins - Kassian

Hendricks - Letestu - Pakarinen

Khaira* - Lander - Pitlick

Klefbom - ?

Sekera - Fayne

Davidson - Gryba

Nurse* - Clendening

Reinhart* - Oesterle*

Talbot

?

Brossoit*

Many may argue against having Pouliot with McDavid and not Maroon but the stats don't lie.  I'm not sure having both Maroon and Kassian on the same line makes sense, but it could work.  Nuge needs a strong skilled partner there and Kassian can do it if he works at it.  Yak was never that guy.

Upcoming Potential Scenarios

• Oilers sign a 3rd line UFA centre like David Backes, then you can bet he's trading Draisaitl or Nuge for a defensemen.
• Oilers trade for top 4 defensemen like Kevin Shattenkirk ($4.2m). The Blues will want a defensive prospect in return making less money so Davidson maybe?
• Oilers sign a top 6 RW UFA like Kyle Okposo, then maybe that puts Jordan Eberle in play for a top defensemen, although the Oilers don't have depth at top 6 right wing.
• Oilers trade Taylor Hall for Shea Weber.  Not. Bloody. Happening.  Caught you there for a sec, eh?

All in all, at the end of the day, when it's all said and done, when the chips are down, and it's neither here nor there, it is what it is, so there you go, because that's the way the cookie crumbles, folks, and life's what you make it, so the story goes, what is and what shall ever be, as the more things change the more they stay the same, so we'll see since change is the only constant, so what are you gonna do. you know what I mean?

And so, my friends, that above sentence is about as cliche as all the trade rumours and proposals that are out there.