Monday, March 13, 2017

Panic time? Oilers still on track to make playoffs

At the 18 games remaining marking, below is my points prediction compared with reality.

I said that Oilers would beat teams below them in points, split points from teams that are close to them, and lose to teams that are above them in order to get 97 points.  However, I made a mistake in where they were at in points at that time (74 not 76), which means, I have to adjust my prediction and remove 2 points, so I'll take it from the Canadiens loss, who were up on them in the standings at the time of the game.

ORIGINAL PREDICTION:
+2 Red Wings
+2 Islanders
0 Penguins
0 Canadiens (previously predicted a win with +2 points)

+2 Stars
+1 Bruins
+2 Canucks
+1 Kings
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========

9-4-5 record
21 points

76 points current
97 points total

After four games, the Oilers are one point back of what I should have predicted.  

PAST:
+2 Red Wings -> GOOD CORRECT (+2)
+2 Islanders -> BAD WRONG (0)
0 Penguins -> GOOD WRONG (+1)
0 Canadiens -> BAD CORRECT (0)

==========
1-2-1 record
3 points gain, 3 points loss
79 points
18 points to meet prediction

FUTURE:
+2 Stars
+1 Bruins
+2 Canucks
+1 Kings
0 Ducks
+2 Avalanche
+2 Avalanche
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+1 Ducks
+1 Kings
0 Sharks
+2 Canucks
+2 Canucks
==========
17 points

-1 from prediction

I now need to adjust one game prediction.  They'll beat the Bruins in regulation.

It's a tall order.  They'll need at least 90 to make the playoffs.  The worst spot to end up is in the 2nd Wild Card position to be playing either Hawks or Wild in the first round, who will either be #1 in the Western Conference.  I'm hoping for the Ducks, which means the Flames 9 game winning streak needs to end, and end now!




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