An Oilers healthy lineup...

What happens when Hall, Smyth, Joensuu, Pitlick, Hamilton, and MacIntyre all return?  This is a difficult task to put the lines together.  It's fair to say now that we need defensive-minded forwards with at least 1 or 2 on each line. With that in mind, consider this:

1. Hall-Nuge-Ebs:   Nuge n Ebs are both not too bad defensively.

2. Jones-Arco-Gags:   Jones is playing well d-wise and can get in front of the net, and Arco is one of our best forwards d-wise and is better at centre than Gags in my opinion--heck in many people's opinions.

3. Perron-Gordon-Yak/Hem: Yak/Hem aren't high defensively but Hemsky is better. Picture Gordon winning a faceoff in our end back to Justin and he fires it to Yak, Hem, or Perron and a way we go.

4. Smyth-Pitlick-Joensuu:  Now THERE's a 4th line.  Pitlick can actually play centre.

It's pretty crowded, isn't it?  What of Ryan Hamilton, Lander, Gazdic, Eager, MacIntyre?  Keep Lander as he's the most versitile of the bunch. Gazdic just isn't getting any bites on fights and is proving himself not worthy.

But right now, with Perron day-to-day and Hall, Smyth, Joensuu, Hamilton, and Pitlick out, I would suggest this:

1. Jones-Arco-Ebs2. Yak-Nuge-Gags

3. Lander-Gord-Hem

4. Gazdic-Acton-Eager

From Bob Stauffer this morning at practice we have:

1. Jones-RNH-Hemsky

2. Yakupov-Gagner-Eberle

3. Arcobello-Gordon-Lander/Hamilton

4. Gazdic-Acton-Eager

..Smyth skating as a D. No J. Schultz

That 3rd line is all centres. Poor Arco.. he really should be at centre on at least the 2nd line.  And what's this about Justin?  Not another one!

On defense, it's pretty straight forward, but each line should have a puck mover and a stay-at-home.  Belov and Justin just doesn't work for anyone.

1. Ference-Petry

2. Smid-J.Schultz

3 .N.Schultz-Belov

If any injuries should come (Justin?) there's a slew of decent 5/6 guys like Larsen, Fedun, Marincin, Davidson to call up, but that means we gotta send down Hamilton.

What a mess.

Leaves 4 - Oilers 0

Oilers with 43 shots! FORTY THREE!

Beat em on faceoffs and hits again too. 

As I said in my previous post, our wingers have been cheating on D. They really didn't do it much today.

But when one bloody defenseman pinches in on offence, shouldn't the other (hello Belov) move to the back to help or a forward (hello Gagner, Yak)?

Oilers took too many risks and it cost them. Too many giveaways and bad passes. 

Plus all the injuries including Perron sick today leaving them with 11 forwards and Jones and Ebs playing lots of minutes.

What I still don't get is why we're playing our top offensive line against the other team's top line? 

The Oilers Plague: Top 6 Wingers

David Staples from the Edmonton Journal Cult of Hockey Blog posted today about the scoring chance differentials of Oilers wingers over the past several years.  He's concluded that wingers like Perron, Yakupov, and Hemsky have not been very good at playing good defensive-style hockey.

In watching this team intently for years, especially since 2007, the year after the Cup run, and when we lost or traded a lot of defensive-minded players, the team has been abysmal on defense overall.

And yes, while the defensive core has also not been up to par either, this year, the defense are actually much better than the past two years, and while everyone is asking for those impossible-to-find-and-trade-for #1 and 2 d-men, they're not looking at what's finally glaring out at us all, and something I've been saying since the season started:

Oilers top 6 wingers suck at defense.  They're cheating for a breakout play and not pinching in to help their defense and centre teammates to actually gain the puck back first.  They're expecting them to just flip it up to them and it's obviously not happening all the time.

Krueger's defensive system last year essentially allowed wingers to cheat, but it opened up a huge hole in the gap that when a team knew how to exploit it, they were firing off shots at Dubnyk at an unprecedented rate and why the team was one of the worst five on five.  Actually, they were absolutely atrocious five on five.  

So in comes Eakins this year with a very demanding swarm defensive team system.  In watching some of the scoring chances and goals against us this year so far, the entire system breaks down with the wingers cheating and not helping enough.  It's as if they're still used to Krueger's system.  It's really why Yak got sat.  He even admitted he doesn't like to play that style.  And it makes me wonder if that's why St. Louis traded for Perron, being that St. Louis is a very defensive-minded team.

Yakupov, Perron, Hall, Hemsky, and to a lesser extent, Eberle, don't have the greatest scoring chance differentials and are all to blame.  Hemsky most of all.  And you don't need stats to see it.  We've been witnessing it for years and it's been frustrating to watch.

Thank God for our top nine centres playing excellent defense. Nuge, Arcobello, and Gordon have been carrying the forward lines this year in playing good two-way defense.  This year, they're actually in the top 5 in the league in scoring differential 5 on 5.  Unfortunately, the special teams aren't up to snuff, they're taking too many penalties, goaltending is questionable, and the injuries have piled up a la 2011.

At Eakins' presser this morning, he said he believes the team is commited to this system and it'll take time for them to adjust to a defense-first mindset and compete level.  I sure hope so.

This system works. It's worked with the Marlies, but it takes commitment from the team.  It's why he sat Kadri when Eakins coached him.  But look at him now.

These are examples of why exactly MacT brought Eakins in and why this fan believes, Eakins is the guy who isn't offering the quick-fix, but the longer-term solution to fix a problem that has been plaguing this team for 6 years.

While it might have been a good idea to put Eakins as coach and Krueger as associate coach and in charge of special teams instead of Keith Acton, here we are.

I just hope it turns around in the next 7 games.  There are glimpses in all the close games and being able to compete toe to toe now with the defensive teams that are dominating the league.

So hang in there, Oilers fans.  We've been doing it for 6 years, another season isn't gonna kill ya, but for me, only if our wingers actually commit to defense first.  So far, not so good.

Oilers 1 vs. Kings 2 (SO) notes

The Good

Richard Bachman. Wow. It was his point and his point only.  I won't go further into him being a backup or #1 at this time. Way too early.  He's a bit small though and needs to come out more to cut angles compared to Dubey who generally stays tight to the net.

Yak scores his first of the year and on a PP.  Hope it's the first of many, many more, especially with Hall out of the lineup. We need that shot threat.  I've said all along that Nuge and Yak need to switch spots on the PP and put Jones in front instead of Perron.  

Jonesy.  Tenacious. Going after Clifford for kneeing Nuge was noble, but perhaps dumb.  That said, it turned a corner for the Oilers who soon after had Yak score one off a rebound.  I liked Nick Schultz's hit on Clifford as well.

The Bad

Our puny but skilled offence didn't get a chance to do much as it was fighting along the boards with the big Kings and losing more often than not.  Wow do we miss our power forwards Joensuu, Pitlick, and Smyth right now.  Our guys were beaten up by the 3rd period and had little energy left.  It's amazing they got through it with 23 shots and only 1 goal.  

The reffing.  Perron got punched in the back of the head in front of the net. No call.  Reminded me of the no call on Nuge against the Leaves. Then Nuge gets kneed by Clifford and no call.  Kings 2nd goal got called back due to goalie interference but there was no penalty for goalie interference although it did seem Schultz pushed him into it. That said, it seemed like a reffing paradox to me.

Hemsky's passing.  I'm so sick of him looping around to the left side and passing backwards and losing the puck, it's just sickening to watch after all these years.  Someone make him stop when he gets behind the net. Just stop. Right there. Now. And then go back the way you came.  Eberle does it all the time, why can't you, Hemmer? Why?  WHY WHY WHY?!?!?!?!?

The Ugly

The number of shots Bachman faced put the Oilers Corsi at a terrible 25%.  The "Swarm" was ineffective, although I hate to beat a dead horse here, but the wingers are still cheating and not fully committing to a team defense.  Not as badly as before, but Eakins must be losing his mind.

Questions remain...

Is Bachman the backstop saviour?  We'll see.

Will the Oilers make the playoffs now?  Very highly unlikely now after 13 games unless they can go 40-19-10.  Why? Because the Western teams are kicking the crap out of the East and the point total will be around 95 or more points.

When is Gagner back and what to do with Arco, who's been playing very well both ways (including leading the team in hits!)?  I say keep Arco and put Gags on his right wing, drop Hemsky to third line... OR send Acton down.

Healthy line up 1:

Hall-Nuge-Ebs

Perron-Arco-Gags

Yak-Gordon-Hemsky

Joensuu-Pitlick-Jones

Healthy line up 2:

Hall-Nuge-Ebs

Perron-Gags-Yak

Joensuu-Arco-Hemksy

Smyth/Pitlick-Gordon-Eager/Jones 

I look at this though and say, someone has to be sent down or traded when Hall, Gags, and Joensuu are back. It's crowded.  You gotta know that MacT is going to do something.  But unfortunately, they gotta be healthy.

Did I mention I hate the NHL refs?

Oilers at Coyotes Rant

That was one of the most unluckiest games for the Oilers I've ever seen. The refs were just awful. The elbow on Petry should have been a misconduct. Ference and Smid didn't do squat to deserve time in the box. Arco deflects a high shot that caught the post to go in on LaBarbera. 

Eakins has been mentioning the "Hockey Gods" and how they haven't been kind. I'd suggest not even thinking about Hockey Gods to not give them any clout, if they exist. 

Once again, the team played well overall but can't seem to find the twine. Everything they didn't do well last year, faceoffs, defensive system, shots, going to the net, puck possession, five on five, the Oilers are doing above average overall. But all the positives from last year, we're not doing--PK, PP, goaltending, and mostly, team play. 

A big thing Eakins is also learning as he goes is line matchups. It's almost as if he's experimenting these first chunk of games. Why our first line with a defensive lack like Yak is matched up against Ovechkin seems insane to me. 

Speaking of Yak, on the PP, why is he not on the right half wall to unleash his Sowetzer and Nuge not behind the net working magic and a big guy in front of the net clearing paths? Even Eager would do here now.

The 3rd and 4th lines have played very well both ways the last two games. I'm a huge Pitlick fan and was ecstatic he scored his first goal today. Sucks he got injured on that crazy hip check hit though. I hope he bounces back.

Speaking of luck, let's not forget we're missing two top scorers and now three power forwards. 

I still believe this team is better overall than last year because our five on five is much better. When they find a better PP system and lineup there, I think it will turn around in 10 more games. 

But I fear, like you, it will be too late.

Avs at Oilers notes

Simply put, the Oilers played the Caps game and were timid physically due to the Caps having the best PP in the league and the Oil not wanting to take any chances at all. It was very apparent.

Oilers were toe to toe with them 97% of the game and had a zillion chances. 

The 4th line was way better tonight and on the 3rd line, Jones and Pitlick were bright highlights on the forecheck.

But overall, the Oilers played a safe game and despite the basically even shot and chance differential, they also just couldn't pot anything, except Justin's pinching goal. 

But this safe style...

How did that work out for them?

Oilers vs Caps n Pens (2 losses)

I'm not going to go into the obvious reporting of the game, just my holistic thoughts on this team, which I believe I'm quite in-tune with.

Defense -- the "Swarm":

The system that was mightily effective for the AHL Toronto Marlies making them the best defensive team in the league has not yet translated for the Oilers, currently with the worst defensive numbers.  Something is out of balance here.

The Oilers executed it much better against the Pens than the Caps.  More often I saw two Oilers on one against the boards with a third lurking right behind. And those two Oilers were right on top of the guy too.  Against the Pens I even saw Pittsburgh have three of their guys on the boards against our three, which signals to me that this is a smarter system and when executed, a much more effective system than Krueger's, which allowed the wingers to cheat.  

But, there are offensive drawbacks. It's also why we don't see Hallsy getting a couple steps ahead of the opposition on the left wing and streaking alone to the net.  This is now a "defense first" team.  And until everyone buys in (looking at you Yakupov) and executes it all the time, if one guy is out of position, it leaves a hole in the slot for the opposition to exploit, like they did to us time and time again last year and why we were by far the worst defensive team in the league.

The Oilers are improving on this system every game, but they are still struggling on getting the puck out of their own end.  Too many backhanded passes up the boards is not quick enough.  Belov is still adjusting to the smaller rink on this part of the game.  Smid's stick handling is not up to snuff either, it really never was though, but it's affecting the team.

Overall, we know this system works but its the wingers that have to commit to making it work in order for it to be effective.

Offensive style -- crash:

There is heavy competition for the top six wingers and they want to impress with goals and assists.  But because the wingers can't cheat in this system, they're trying to make the long, cross-ice pass, which is very risky and teams have been intercepting it. Hall and Hemsky have been the absolute worst in the league on this.  Eakins is continuing to promote a more simple game, with less risk.  

You'll also note against the Pens, the Oilers were putting more pucks on the net and crashing it, hoping for garbage goals, which Eberle FINALLY got one after what seemed like a million chances from him.  I was hoping to see Ryan Smyth or Jones out there for more of that grind.

Our shot total and chances are up from last year and this is a huge improvement, whereas last year, the Oilers recorded their worst shots on goal ... ever ... at 12 and most games, they trailed big time in shots for and against.

Goaltending -- new pads and sticks:

Unlike many Oilers fans who don't look around the rest of the league and take note in patterns, I have.  It seems taller goalies are having difficulty adjusting to the new narrower pad and shorter stick regulations, and Dubnyk, being one of the tallest goalies, is having a hell of a time, and so is LaBarbera to an extent.  The hot goalies of last year, are not off to good starts either--Lundqvist, Quick, Miller, Luongo, and more.  These pads and sticks ARE having an effect. Doesn't it seem odd to you that many goalies appear a bit awkward out there than before?

All that said, there are other goalies doing quite well.  Perhaps, their pads and stick from before weren't that big of a difference to the new regulation, but our goalies need to practice and figure this out now.

New Coach - New System

I still feel the Oilers are adjusting to this new coach and system, albeit quite slowly.  They appear to be competing for the puck better and gaining possession back more quickly.

Conversely, the coach is adjusting to this team as well and trying to get them to commit to his system.  He's had to bench Smyth and Yak to hold them accountable and by this logic, others should be benched too (Hall and Hemsky).  Eakins is experimenting with lines and seeing where the chemistry is.  I think he should just ask the players.

Some of the line combinations have been odd, but last night's seemed to have the best chemistry:

1. Hall - Arco - Ebs:  OKC line finds chemistry again quickly.
2. Perron - Nuge - Yak:  Nuge and Yak need to play more together because I think Nuge is only centre that compliments Yak.
3. Smyth - Gordo - Hem:  Hem plays better with defensive centreman (re: Horcoff) and Smyth seems way more comfortable on this style of line too.
4. Jones - Acton - Brown:  Jones is better than Gazdic or Brown.  This 4th line overall though needs work. No wonder Eakins limits their time.  

What do we do when Gagner comes back?  Arcobello has been playing very well both ways and his advanced stat numbers show it, I'd hate to see him go.  But is Gagner best at centre or right wing? His faceoffs aren't great and he's a leaky centreman, albeit he has tonnes of skill and scoring finesse.  Something doesn't seem right.  I just don't think this team has have enough room for both Yak and Hemsky on the right wing.

Why not do this:

Hall - Arco - EbsPerron - Nuge - YakJonesuu - Gags - HemskySmyth - Gordo - Jones

or this?

Hall - Arco - Ebs

Perron - Nuge - Gags

Joensuu - Gordo - Yak

Smyth - Acton - Hemsky

The Short Term Goal

I think they're improving every couple of games and adjusting to commiting to this system.  All of the above comments hopefully lead the Oilers to be near .500 by the 20th game.  If they don't, let's hope some luck goes their way, injuries are kept low, and with the increased number of shots and chances ratio to the opposition continues on this positive path, if I can believe things will go our way eventually, so can the players.

If things aren't on the right path by that 20th game, look for MacT to try and deal a goalie (he is already), one or two d-men, a skilled winger (Yak), a vet winger (Hemsky) and picks in return for a true #1 goalie, defensive winger, or #1 d-man.  

I also predict Ryan Smyth will retire either by the Olympic break or trade deadline.